Israeli and US officials suggest Mojtaba Khamenei has lost control in Iran, with IRGC commanders calling the shots. The Iran leadership change by December 31 market sits at 39.5% YES, up from 30% a week ago.
The December 31 leadership change market climbed 9.5 points over the past week as traders price in IRGC’s increasing influence as a destabilizing factor. The April 30 contract is priced at 4.5%, given the short timeframe. The May 31 odds have moved up modestly to 15.5%.
The Iran regime fall market remains flat, with April 30 at 0.4% YES. The May 31 market at 3.6% YES shows slight expectations of regime instability, but it’s still a low-probability event.
Volumes tell a specific story. The leadership change market trades $9,612/day in actual USDC, with a 1-point drop as the largest single move. This is a thin market: $8,966 moves it 5 points, so expect sharp swings on new information. The regime fall markets show much higher face value volumes but require more capital to move, which points to stronger trader conviction on stability.
IRGC’s growing autonomy from Mojtaba’s leadership is the core driver here. A YES bet at 39.5¢ pays out at roughly 2.5x if a leadership change resolves before year-end. Any IRGC strategic military or political announcements could move these odds further.
Watch for an IRGC statement about Mojtaba’s role or any Assembly of Experts activity. Either could move the leadership change market fast.
