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1h Middle East conflict impacts ECB rate expectations, Bitcoin price remains stable
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
1h Middle East conflict impacts ECB rate expectations, Bitcoin price remains stable
▲ ECB interest rates in april 2026
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 1h)
⚡ Bitcoin price on april 24: 0% FLAT
YES ▲100¢
ECB interest rates in april 2026
1 article
Developing
100%
▲100¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on april 24 0% FLAT
1h 
NO ▲3¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
Developing
90%
▼3¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
58m Europe braces for prolonged Ukraine war with no ceasefire strategy
YES ▲3¢
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
· 2h ago
50%
▲3¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 46% FLAT
2h London housing crisis threatens Labour’s control in local elections
YES ▲3¢
Starmer out prediction markets
1 article
· 4h ago
50%
▲3¢
⚡ Starmer out timing predictions 46% FLAT
4h Andy Burnham eyes leadership challenge as Labour’s prospects slide
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
7%
▼2¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
✓ 31h US envoys travel to Pakistan for Iran talks amid peace deal speculation
NO ▲2¢
Russia entry into kupiansk-vuzlovyi
1 article
· 3h ago
90%
▼2¢
✓ 33h Russia missile attack on Ukraine kills 4, injures 30, says Zelenskiy
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
· 3h ago
7%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 8% FLAT
3h US-Iran talks confirmed in Islamabad, impacting prediction markets
✓ 23h Iran, Pakistan discuss peace proposals amid indirect US-Iran negotiations
NO ▲2¢
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 3h ago
7%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 8% FLAT
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
✓ 23h Kushner, Witkoff head to Pakistan for US-Iran peace talks restart
YES ▲1¢
Countries sending warships through hormuz
2 articles
Developing
17%
▲1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 16% FLAT
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 2% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran seizes two ships, Strait of Hormuz traffic declines
3h Germany deploys naval units in Mediterranean amid Hormuz tensions
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
1 article
Developing
6%
▲1¢
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 5% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 5% FLAT
✓ 41h Iran’s FM in Pakistan for talks as US envoys prepare to arrive
YES ▲1¢
Best Chinese AI company by april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
72%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
2h White House targets AI theft by Chinese firms, impacting Alibaba’s AI prospects
YES ▲1¢
Trump China visit
1 article
· 2h ago
72%
▲1¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
2h Trump to visit Beijing May 14 amid Iran war, market odds drop 17.5 points
YES ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
17%
▲1¢
✓ 52h Turkey open to Strait of Hormuz demining if Iran-US peace deal reached
NO ▲1¢
Countries conducting military action against Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼1¢
2h US deploys F/A-18 jets to UAE amid Iran tensions, market impact unclear
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼1¢
✓ 23h Bitcoin ETFs see $823M inflows this week, boosting market odds
NO ▲1¢
Bitcoin price predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼1¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
3h BlackRock, Morgan Stanley invest $34M in Bitcoin ETFs
NO ▲1¢
Iran enriched uranium surrender
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium surrender 7% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
3h Iran claims US bunker-buster bomb neutralised amid military tensions
NO ▲1¢
Bank of Russia decision in april
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼1¢
⚡ Putin's presidency status 4% FLAT
3h Putin’s approval drops amid economic woes, internet crackdown
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
3 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
3h Israeli airstrikes continue amid stagnant ceasefire market conditions
3h Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill six, ceasefire odds remain unchanged
✓ 24h IDF reports Hezbollah ceasefire violations amid rising Lebanon tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 3h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
⚡ Iran regime fall 0% FLAT
3h Iran executes protester linked to Mossad amid regime crackdown
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
· 3h ago
13%
▼0¢
✓ 23h US, Iran ship seizures violate international law, disrupt Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap
1 article
· 4h ago
93%
▼0¢
4h Nvidia deploys GPT-5.5 Codex to 10,000 employees, boosting AI collaboration
Likely NO
Largest company predictions for june
1 article
· 4h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by june 92% FLAT
4h Nvidia market cap hits $5T amid US-China tech rivalry
Likely NO
Iran uranium surrender
1 article
· 4h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 6% FLAT
⚡ Iranian regime fall 8% FLAT
4h US bombs Iranian nuclear sites, fate of uranium stockpile uncertain
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
4h Middle East tensions impact energy price expectations amid US interventions
Likely NO
XRP price april 13-19
1 article
Developing
100%
2m Senate gridlock on CLARITY Act dims XRP’s April $2.6 prospects
Likely NO
Next prime minister of slovenia
1 article
Developing
98%
▼0¢
10m Slovenia’s president declines to propose PM candidate amid coalition impasse
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
13m Strait of Hormuz closure spikes oil prices amid US-Iran conflict
2h Iran war disrupts supply chains, raises global medicine prices
3h Iran closes Strait of Hormuz, impacting global oil supply
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
35m Israeli army warns 58 Lebanese villages amid ongoing military operations
✓ 23h Trump confirms three-week extension of Israel-Lebanon ceasefire
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
1 article
Developing
17%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 16% FLAT
41m US Navy deploys drones to clear mines in Strait of Hormuz amid Iran blockade
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire 8% FLAT
46m Ukraine ready for peace talks with Russia in Azerbaijan, awaits Moscow’s response
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
50m Iran Air resumes Tehran-Mashhad flights after 56-day suspension
2h Iran internet blackout hits 57 days amid rising regime change speculation
3h Iran retains significant missile capability amid US-led operations
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
53m Israeli drone strike kills alleged Hezbollah agent in southern Lebanon
Likely NO
Iran's enriched uranium
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
58m Iran positions missile launchers near US forces amid nuclear tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
1h Iran sends first Hajj teams to Medina amid Saudi normalization efforts
2h IRGC commanders dominate as Mojtaba Khamenei loses control in Iran
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h EU sanctions to target Russian condensate imports from Yamal LNG by 2027
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 2% FLAT
2h Iran allows oil tankers to cross Strait of Hormuz, easing tensions
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 3% FLAT
✓ 22h Iran resumes commercial flights amid ongoing US-Israel conflict
Likely NO
GPT-5.5 release dates
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 100% FLAT
⚡ GPT-5.5 release dates 100% FLAT
3h OpenAI unveils GPT-5.5 model, settles release date markets YES
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
4h Bitcoin stabilizes at $75K-$78K after US-Iran ceasefire, market remains calm