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1h Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin steady at $75K amid eased tensions
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
1h Iran reopens Strait of Hormuz, Bitcoin steady at $75K amid eased tensions
▲ Bitcoin price in april
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 1h)
YES ▲2¢
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
Developing
83%
▲2¢
⚡ Fed rate cuts in 2026 39% FLAT
1h Kevin Warsh’s Fed Chair nomination advances after unanimous Senate committee vote
NO ▲1¢
US obtaining Iranian enriched uranium
2 articles
Developing
5%
▼1¢
⚡ Iran uranium surrender 5% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 6% FLAT
49m Iran holds 11-ton uranium stockpile, enough for 100 nuclear weapons
53m US-Israeli strikes damage Iran’s nuclear facilities, uranium stockpile intact
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▼1¢
1h Zelenskyy proposes Russia talks in Azerbaijan amid low ceasefire odds
NO ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
5%
▼1¢
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 64% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 6% FLAT
1h US-Iran talks stall as Iran dismisses US blockade
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
49%
▼1¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 50% FLAT
1h Keir Starmer faces privilege motion pressure amid Partygate comparisons
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
Developing
10%
▼1¢
⚡ US acquisition of Iranian enriched uranium 11% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 11% FLAT
1h Tether freezes $344M USDT linked to Iran amid sanctions crackdown
NO ▲1¢
Dublin central by-election 2026
1 article
Developing
49%
▼1¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 50% FLAT
✓ 21h Starmer faces leadership scrutiny after Scotland and Wales election ‘shambles’
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
Developing
63%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 64% FLAT
✓ 51h Iran delivers demands to US via Pakistan amid Hormuz blockade tensions
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
Developing
16%
▼1¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 16% FLAT
1h Turkey considers demining Strait of Hormuz amid US-Iran nuclear talks
NO ▲1¢
Trump's Iranian demands
1 article
Developing
10%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 11% FLAT
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
1h Trump pushes US firms for Gulf reconstruction amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
US escorts in hormuz
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
✓ 21h USS George H.W. Bush enters Indian Ocean, three US carriers in Middle East
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap in april 2026
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in april 100% FLAT
⚡ Largest company predictions for june 92% FLAT
1h Nvidia leads market cap race as Microsoft, Apple stocks decline
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 6% FLAT
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 2% FLAT
✓ 21h Witkoff, Kushner head to Islamabad for Iran talks this Saturday
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
1h Bitcoin nears $80K as Strategy accumulates, $427M shorts liquidated
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi enter Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
✓ 21h Indonesian UN peacekeeper killed in Lebanon amid ongoing hostilities
Likely NO
ECB interest rates in april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026 0% FLAT
1h IMF meetings highlight Ukraine aid, oil tops $100 amid Middle East conflict
Likely NO
Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Israel, Lebanon hold US-mediated talks amid Hezbollah tensions
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap on april 30 100% FLAT
1h Nvidia poised to be largest company by market cap amid AI demand, geopolitical ease
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
1h Iran tensions impact Bitcoin, crude oil markets amid geopolitical uncertainty
Likely YES
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
Developing
6%
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
4m Thousands in Israel choose jail over military service, pressure builds on Netanyahu
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
3 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 1% FLAT
4m Yergin warns Strait of Hormuz crisis could be largest energy disruption ever
✓ 21h Strait of Hormuz disruption fails to spike oil demand, traders warn of shakeup
1h US crude exports hit record 5.2M barrels per day amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 10% FLAT
7m Trump’s uranium seizure plan dims prospects for Iran nuclear deal by April 30
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Who will meet with Iran by april 30 2% FLAT
9m Iranian foreign minister leaves Pakistan without US meeting
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 6% FLAT
10m Iran sticks with mediated talks, rejects direct US negotiations
19m Iranian, US officials head to Pakistan amid potential diplomatic talks
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
11m Iran conflict impacts crude oil contracts amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
3 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi enter Iran 6% FLAT
⚡ Iran control and regime fall 0% FLAT
15m Ali Larijani assassination shakes Iran leadership markets, uncertainty rises
1h US detains Iranian ships amid uncertain Pakistan negotiations
✓ 21h Iran resumes Tehran flights after US-Israel strikes, signaling stability
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
15m Israeli forces kill over 15 Hezbollah members in southern Lebanon amid tensions
17m Hezbollah releases combat footage amid ceasefire violations with Israel
1h Netanyahu, Aoun may meet in Washington amid Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire talks
Likely NO
Next CEO of apple
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
17m John Ternus confirmed as Apple’s next CEO, succeeding Tim Cook
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions by end of june
1 article
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 10% FLAT
18m US Navy blockade of Hormuz boosts US energy exports amid oil supply disruption
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
25m Tanker ETF surges 600% amid US-Iran conflict and rising shipping rates
1h Chinese exporters raise prices amid Iran conflict tightening petrochemical supply
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
27m Iran accuses US, Israel of inciting unrest, dims hopes for sanction relief
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
30m Strait of Hormuz blockade threatens oil supply, market skeptical of price spike
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
34m Macron’s EU defense pledge reinforces NATO, US withdrawal odds drop
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 16% FLAT
⚡ Warships through the strait of hormuz 2% FLAT
✓ 245m Macron pushes to reopen Strait of Hormuz amid energy shortage warnings
Likely NO
Next UK prime minister in 2026
1 article
Developing
49%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 49% FLAT
48m Reform UK, Greens threaten Labour’s control in London ahead of May 7 elections
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
✓ 550m Rockets from Lebanon trigger sirens in northern Israel’s Upper Galilee
Likely NO
Trump insult prediction market
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Who will Trump publicly insult by april 30? 100% FLAT
54m Trump may insult Tucker Carlson by April 30 as prediction markets hold steady
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
55m Germany to send minesweeper to Mediterranean for Hormuz mission prep
1h Iran lays mines in Strait of Hormuz again, Trump orders boat destruction
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
1 article
Developing
97%
▼0¢
1h Arbitrum freezes $70M in funds linked to North Korea’s Lazarus Group hack