Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused the US and Israel of targeting infrastructure to incite domestic unrest. Trump’s agreement to Iranian oil sanction relief in April now sits at 11.5% YES, down from 14% yesterday.
Pezeshkian’s statement makes an immediate thaw in US-Iran relations less likely. The odds of Trump agreeing to Iranian demands have dropped steadily, falling from 62% a week ago. With only days left in April, traders see little chance of a last-minute diplomatic deal. The low price reflects entrenched positions and ongoing hostilities on both sides.
The term structure shows a consistent flatline at 11.5% for all related April contracts. The cost to move the market 5 percentage points is just $119, indicating thin liquidity. A single large order could swing the odds significantly, but nothing points to such intervention.
Pezeshkian’s comments about external aggression and blockades track with IRGC threats, reinforcing the hostile posture that has pushed this contract down. A YES share at 12¢ offers a 8.3x return if Trump caves by month’s end, a bet against the current diplomatic direction.
Watch for any unexpected statements from Trump or the White House before April closes, especially on Truth Social. A sudden conciliatory gesture could jolt the market. Also pay attention to JD Vance’s remarks; any deviation from the hardline could signal a shift.
