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2h Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
▲ Trump posts week of april 6, 2023
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 2h)
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
Developing
3%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
34m Wendy Sherman calls US-Iran situation “harder, riskier, strategically misjudged”
YES ▲1¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
2h Trump refuses to halt Iran military action, peace deal confidence shaken
YES ▲1¢
Iranian demands Trump
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 6% FLAT
✓ 32h Trump’s Iran rhetoric sinks odds of oil sanction relief by April
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
4m Israeli attacks kill over 2,500 in Lebanon since March 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 25m Iran moves 4M barrels of oil past US blockade, stabilizing supply outlook
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
7m US-Iran talks stall, Israel-Iran peace deal unlikely by April 30
1h US-Iran peace deal odds plummet as negotiations stall
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
10m Hezbollah and Israel escalate attacks, accuse each other of ceasefire violations
1h Netanyahu orders forceful attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
Likely NO
Countries conducting military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
13m Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iran strikes
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
13m Iran FM returns to Islamabad for further talks amid US envoy trip cancellation
Likely NO
Fed chair confirmation predictions
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 2% FLAT
✓ 214m Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as DOJ ends Powell probe
✓ 22h Tillis backs Warsh, clearing path for Fed chair confirmation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
1 article
Developing
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
28m Karex warns of 30% price hikes due to Iran war supply chain issues
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on april 24
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
35m Bitcoin trades 30% below $126K ATH amid consecutive bear markets
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
36m US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, impacting Strait of Hormuz traffic
2h Trump claims destruction of Iran’s navy, reinforces Hormuz blockade
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
40m Iran internet blackout costs $31M daily, pressures regime
1h US-Israeli strikes, blockade strain Iran’s economy amid regime change speculation
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
41m Trump calls for Spain’s NATO suspension over Iran war stance
2h EU approves $105B aid to Ukraine, reinforcing support amid US policy shift
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu out of power 6% FLAT
✓ 241m Lapid and Bennett form alliance to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
Likely NO
GPT-5.5 release dates
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 100% FLAT
42m OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 set for June release, market shows 100% certainty
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
43m Oman hosts Iran’s foreign minister amid US-Iran nuclear deal uncertainty
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 24
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
49m Nvidia eyes top market cap spot amid tech earnings, Powell’s final FOMC
Likely NO
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
50m UK plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz, deploy ships and drones for security
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
58m Israeli soldier killed in Lebanon, ceasefire market remains static
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
1h Iran-US conflict disrupts pistachio exports, Strait of Hormuz shipping strained
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h North Korean group steals $285M from crypto platforms in six-month operation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
1h Strait of Hormuz restrictions fail to move WTI Crude Oil $160 market
Likely NO
Trump China visit
1 article
Developing
73%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
1h Trump to visit Beijing for summit with Xi on May 14-15
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
1h Strategy boosts Bitcoin holdings to 815,061 BTC, valued at $63.4B
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location
1 article
Developing
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 14% FLAT
1h Iranian diplomat Araghchi may meet US officials, WSJ reports
Likely NO
US military action in 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
2h US military supply chain dependency on China raises conflict concerns
Likely NO
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Assassination attempt on Trump shifts focus to Leavitt’s next briefing
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
2h Israel escalates Gaza operations, sidelining US-backed administration
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
2h Iran targets US infrastructure with precision strikes, complicating defense efforts
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼0¢
2h Iranian MP: Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war conditions
Likely NO
Netanyahu out of power
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure from power 6% FLAT
✓ 62h Bennett and Lapid form alliance to challenge Netanyahu’s leadership
Likely NO
US escorts through hormuz
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts commercial ship through hormuz 4% FLAT
⚡ Iran successfully targets ships by april 30 69% FLAT
✓ 52h US Navy seizes oil, raising tensions in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Peru presidential election 2026 candidates
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h Sánchez leads by 24,000 votes in Peru election, runoff set against Fujimori
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 32h Trump warns of potential explosion at Iran’s oil sites amid US blockade
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
2 articles
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action by april 30 100% FLAT
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 3% FLAT
✓ 22h Israel deploys Iron Dome, IDF troops to UAE amid Iran conflict
✓ 22h Israeli soldier killed in Lebanon amid Israel-Hezbollah tensions
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
7%
▼0¢
✓ 42h Iran’s foreign minister heads to Moscow as US-Iran ceasefire collapse looms
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting dates 0% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 4% FLAT
✓ 32h Trump insists Iran talks by phone only, nuclear deal less likely by April 30
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Trump confirms calls with Putin, Zelensky on Ukraine de-escalation efforts
Likely NO
Netanyahu's departure
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
2h Netanyahu adviser Golan defects to Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit party
Likely NO
China's potential invasion of taiwan
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
2h US missile depletion impacts Taiwan defense strategy amid China tensions