Iran has moved 4 million barrels of crude oil past the US blockade, and the Polymarket contract on crude oil hitting an all-time high by April 30 sits at 1% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Market reaction

With Iran getting oil out despite the blockade, traders are pricing in a more stable supply picture. The crude oil all-time high market dropped accordingly. The largest move in the past 24 hours was a 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, from 3% to 4%.

Trading volume is $2,513 over the past 24 hours, well below the contract’s $100,828 face value. It takes just $695 to move the market 5 percentage points, meaning a single trade could swing the odds substantially.

Why it matters

Iran’s successful exports point to a smaller supply disruption than the market had been pricing in. This is bearish for oil price contracts that were built around a supply crunch scenario. A YES share costs 1¢, implying a 100x return if the contract resolves YES. For that bet to work, you’d need a sudden, severe supply shock within the next 6 days.

What to watch

Further US enforcement actions or production announcements from Saudi Arabia or Russia. Either could shift the supply calculus and move these odds.

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