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3h Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
3h Strait of Hormuz closure fails to impact Bitcoin prediction markets
▲ Trump posts week of april 6, 2023
100% (was 0%, ▲100¢ in 3h)
YES ▲2¢
Trump China visit
1 article
· 3h ago
75%
▲2¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump to visit Beijing for summit with Xi on May 14-15
YES ▲2¢
US military action in 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
75%
▲2¢
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
3h US military supply chain dependency on China raises conflict concerns
NO ▲1¢
Next CEO of apple
2 articles
Developing
2%
▼1¢
⚡ Trump visit China 0% FLAT
52m Apple names John Ternus as CEO, foldable iPhone set for September
✓ 31h Tim Cook reportedly passing foldable iPhone project to John Ternus
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
Developing
3%
▼1¢
✓ 21h Iran rejects nuclear limits, seeks sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening
1h US envoys’ canceled visit to Islamabad casts doubt on Iran peace talks
NO ▲1¢
Federal funds rate predictions for end of 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼1¢
1h Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed Chair role stirs rate hike speculation
NO ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 2% FLAT
✓ 21h Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as DOJ ends Powell probe
✓ 23h Tillis backs Warsh, clearing path for Fed chair confirmation
YES ▲1¢
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
2h Wendy Sherman calls US-Iran situation “harder, riskier, strategically misjudged”
YES ▲1¢
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▲1¢
2h UK plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz, deploy ships and drones for security
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 3% FLAT
4m Trump’s demand for US control of Iran’s nuclear material stalls deal prospects
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
13m Iran warns of retaliation, raising crude oil supply disruption concerns
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
24m Trump hints at Iran peace talks, June 30 deal market splits YES
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
Developing
96%
▼0¢
30m Iran conflict pressures central banks, traders reassess Bitcoin outlook
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
47m Iran conflict disrupts oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets
2h Iran-US conflict disrupts pistachio exports, Strait of Hormuz shipping strained
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
3 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 14% FLAT
49m Iran proposes framework to end war, awaits US and Israeli response
2h Iran internet blackout costs $31M daily, pressures regime
3h US-Israeli strikes, blockade strain Iran’s economy amid regime change speculation
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h 4M barrels bypass US blockade at Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 21h EgyptAir resumes flights amid easing Gulf tensions, potential de-escalation
3h Iran targets US infrastructure with precision strikes, complicating defense efforts
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
1h Israeli attacks kill over 2,500 in Lebanon since March 2026
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran moves 4M barrels of oil past US blockade, stabilizing supply outlook
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
2 articles
Developing
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
1h US-Iran talks stall, Israel-Iran peace deal unlikely by April 30
3h US-Iran peace deal odds plummet as negotiations stall
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
✓ 31h Hezbollah and Israel escalate attacks, accuse each other of ceasefire violations
2h Netanyahu orders forceful attacks on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon
Likely NO
Countries conducting military action against Iran
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
1h Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iran strikes
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
Developing
7%
▼0¢
1h Iran FM returns to Islamabad for further talks amid US envoy trip cancellation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
2h Karex warns of 30% price hikes due to Iran war supply chain issues
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on april 24
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
2h Bitcoin trades 30% below $126K ATH amid consecutive bear markets
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
2h US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, impacting Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
2h Trump calls for Spain’s NATO suspension over Iran war stance
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu out of power 6% FLAT
✓ 22h Lapid and Bennett form alliance to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
Likely NO
GPT-5.5 release dates
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 100% FLAT
2h OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 set for June release, market shows 100% certainty
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
2h Oman hosts Iran’s foreign minister amid US-Iran nuclear deal uncertainty
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 24
1 article
· 2h ago
93%
▼0¢
2h Nvidia eyes top market cap spot amid tech earnings, Powell’s final FOMC
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
2h Israeli soldier killed in Lebanon, ceasefire market remains static
Likely NO
Crypto hack predictions for 2023
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h North Korean group steals $285M from crypto platforms in six-month operation
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
2h Strait of Hormuz restrictions fail to move WTI Crude Oil $160 market
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
· 3h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
3h Strategy boosts Bitcoin holdings to 815,061 BTC, valued at $63.4B
Likely NO
Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location
1 article
· 3h ago
14%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 14% FLAT
3h Iranian diplomat Araghchi may meet US officials, WSJ reports
Likely NO
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
3h Assassination attempt on Trump shifts focus to Leavitt’s next briefing
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
3h Israel escalates Gaza operations, sidelining US-backed administration
Likely NO
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h Trump refuses to halt Iran military action, peace deal confidence shaken
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
· 3h ago
15%
▼0¢
3h Iranian MP: Strait of Hormuz won’t return to pre-war conditions
Likely NO
Netanyahu out of power
1 article
· 3h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure from power 6% FLAT
✓ 63h Bennett and Lapid form alliance to challenge Netanyahu’s leadership