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4h 4M barrels bypass US blockade at Strait of Hormuz
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
4h 4M barrels bypass US blockade at Strait of Hormuz
▼ Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
2% (was 4%, ▼2¢ in 4h)
NO ▲1¢
Crude oil price predictions for june 2023
2 articles
Developing
0%
▼1¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 51h Iran-US peace talks collapse, crude oil market remains steady
✓ 21h US oil prices surge past $96 as US-Iran peace talks collapse
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 1% FLAT
✓ 23h Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair, removing key obstacle ahead of committee vote
NO ▲1¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
· 4h ago
3%
▼1¢
✓ 34h Iran rejects nuclear limits, seeks sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening
5h US envoys’ canceled visit to Islamabad casts doubt on Iran peace talks
Likely NO
US-Iran peace deal
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
3m Iran’s Qalibaf claims US out of oil options, peace deal odds plummet
Likely NO
Crude oil predictions for june
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 21h Trump cancels Iran talks trip, raising Strait of Hormuz disruption fears
3h Iran warns of retaliation, raising crude oil supply disruption concerns
Likely NO
Trump's public insults
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump public insults by april 2026 100% FLAT
1h Tucker Carlson apologizes for backing Trump amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Peru presidential election 2026 candidates
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h Roberto Sánchez leads Peru election by 24,000 votes with 95.8% counted
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 21h Iran exports 4.6M barrels of oil, bypassing US sanctions efforts
✓ 25h Iran moves 4M barrels of oil past US blockade, stabilizing supply outlook
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 4% FLAT
1h Russia open to US talks on Ukraine settlement, no new concessions
Likely NO
Bank of japan decision in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
0%
▼0¢
2h Iran accuses US of ceasefire breach amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
3 articles
Developing
100%
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
just now Israel tightens security in north amid rising Hezbollah tensions
✓ 22h Israeli airstrikes hit evacuation route in south Lebanon amid military escalation
5h Israeli attacks kill over 2,500 in Lebanon since March 2026
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 4% FLAT
35m US cancels envoy trips as Iran peace deal market plummets
2h Iran appoints hardliner Jalili as lead negotiator in US talks
✓ 23h Iran cites energy leverage as US-Iran peace deal odds drop
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
41m Bitcoin jumps $1K on Binance amid US-Iran conflict tensions
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
Developing
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel-Iran permanent peace deal 1% FLAT
42m China-backed ceasefire stabilizes Iran amid regime change speculation
4h Iran proposes framework to end war, awaits US and Israeli response
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
43%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 42% FLAT
43m Keir Starmer vows to lead Labour despite Mandelson scandal pressure
Likely NO
WTI crude oil prices in april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 249m Iran says Strait of Hormuz will not return to previous state amid US distrust
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
✓ 250m Trump warns Iran of potential oil shut-ins within three days
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
54m Two-thirds of Israelis dissatisfied with Netanyahu’s leadership, survey shows
✓ 33h Former Israeli premiers form new party to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
Likely NO
Diplomatic meetings with Iran
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
56m Iran proposes new formula to revive talks with US
Likely NO
Republican presidential nominee 2028
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 258m Third assassination attempt on Trump during White House Correspondents’ Dinner
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap in april 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by june 92% FLAT
2h Hedge funds exit US tech stocks, raising questions on Nvidia’s market cap lead
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
1 article
· 2h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
2h Institutional control of Bitcoin supply rises from 8% in 2024
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
2h Bitcoin nears $79K liquidity zone, $1.5B short squeeze potential at $81K
Likely NO
Next to leave Trump cabinet
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 22h Armed suspect stopped at White House Correspondents’ Dinner targeting Trump officials
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
2h Trump claims division in Iran’s leadership, markets await decisive action
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
✓ 22h Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon, military activity surges
Likely NO
Next CEO of apple
3 articles
· 3h ago
99.8%
▼0¢
3h Apple confirms John Ternus as new CEO, succeeding Tim Cook
4h Apple names John Ternus as CEO, foldable iPhone set for September
✓ 34h Tim Cook reportedly passing foldable iPhone project to John Ternus
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h IRGC Quds Force chief vows support for Hezbollah amid Israel ceasefire
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
2 articles
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
3h Trump warns Middle East conflict could destabilize markets
4h Iran conflict disrupts oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
· 3h ago
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 92% FLAT
✓ 23h Nvidia’s market cap dominance odds steady despite US-Iran tensions, tariffs
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 3% FLAT
3h Trump’s demand for US control of Iran’s nuclear material stalls deal prospects
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
3h Trump hints at Iran peace talks, June 30 deal market splits YES
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
· 4h ago
96%
▼0¢
4h Iran conflict pressures central banks, traders reassess Bitcoin outlook
Likely NO
Federal funds rate predictions for end of 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
2%
▼0¢
5h Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed Chair role stirs rate hike speculation
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 35h EgyptAir resumes flights amid easing Gulf tensions, potential de-escalation
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 5h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
5h US-Iran talks stall, Israel-Iran peace deal unlikely by April 30