Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair, removing key obstacle ahead of committee vote

Senator Thom Tillis has reversed his opposition and now supports Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as Federal Reserve Chair. The May 15 confirmation market has surged to 95% YES, up from 29% just 24 hours ago.

Tillis is a key vote on the Senate Banking Committee, and his reversal removes the main obstacle to Warsh’s confirmation. The committee votes Wednesday, which could push Warsh closer to a full Senate floor vote. The May 1 market sits at just 1.3% YES, given the tight timeline. The June 30 market is at 96.9% YES, meaning traders treat confirmation as near-certain over a longer window.

Face value of trades over the past 24 hours was $75,123, but actual USDC traded was $19,708. That gap shows the difference between headline figures and real capital committed. The 20-point spike in the May 15 market to 95% YES indicates traders expect confirmation shortly after the committee vote.

Tillis’s support suggests the DOJ’s investigation into Powell’s tenure is no longer blocking Warsh’s path. With a GOP-majority committee and Tillis on board, the probability of any remaining obstacle is low. A YES share for confirmation by May 15 costs 95¢, offering a 1.05x return if confirmed.

Watch the Senate Banking Committee vote on Wednesday. Any delays or unexpected developments could shift the odds. Also worth tracking: comments from Democratic senators or any change in support from other GOP members on the committee.

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