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5m Russian missile strike spills 6,000 tons of sunflower oil into Black Sea
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
5m Russian missile strike spills 6,000 tons of sunflower oil into Black Sea
▼ Iran successfully targets ships by april 30
85% (was 86%, ▼1¢ in 5m)
YES ▲1¢
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
Developing
16%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 1% FLAT
1h Rubio warns against Iran control of waterways, doubts US agreement by April 30
YES ▲1¢
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▲1¢
3h Hakeem Jeffries calls for ‘maximum warfare’ before Trump assassination attempt
NO ▲1¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 3h ago
19%
▼1¢
3h Iran warns of subsea cable threats in Strait of Hormuz amid tensions
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 3h ago
99.5%
▲1¢
⚡ Bitcoin price on may 1 99% FLAT
3h Crypto ETPs attract $1.2B inflows, Bitcoin leads with $932.5M
NO ▲1¢
Iran coup attempt
1 article
· 5h ago
19%
▼1¢
✓ 25h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, challenges navigation rights
Likely NO
Ethereum price predictions in april
1 article
Developing
92%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 92% FLAT
13m Tech selloff raises AI concerns, Nvidia market cap odds dip
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
3 articles
Developing
16%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ Next US-Iran diplomatic meeting location 16% FLAT
17m Iran hardliners clash over US nuclear talks as deal hopes fade
1h US intelligence assesses Iran’s potential response to Trump victory claim
2h Trump misrepresents Merz on Iran nukes, US-Iran deal odds plummet
Likely NO
Fed decision in april 2026
1 article
Developing
86%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision in july 2026 86% FLAT
24m Middle East tensions keep central banks cautious on rate cuts amid inflation
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
44m Hezbollah upgrades drones with fiber-optic tech, impacting Israel ceasefire outlook
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
2 articles
Developing
39%
▼0¢
54m UK MPs reject probe into PM Starmer over Mandelson appointment
✓ 33h UK MPs reject probe into Mandelson claims, shoring up Starmer’s position
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
55m Strategy buys 3,273 Bitcoin for $255M amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
Likely NO
Putin meeting with Iranian officials
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
57m Putin meets Iranian officials, confirming diplomatic ties without military shift
3h Putin confirms strategic partnership with Iran in Saint Petersburg meeting
Likely NO
Fed rate cuts in 2026
1 article
Developing
43%
▼0¢
1h Fed likely to hold rates steady despite leadership change, oil prices rise
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
1h US natural gas exports maxed out as Strait of Hormuz closure impacts supply
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
4 articles
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
1h Trump considers Iranian offer to reopen Strait of Hormuz, easing oil tensions
2h Iran conflict worsens Somalia’s malnutrition crisis, raises food costs
5h Iran allows Japanese supertanker through Strait of Hormuz, easing supply fears
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
1h Contractor linked to Israeli Defense Ministry killed in Lebanon
5h Hezbollah claims strike on Israeli tank in south Lebanon amid ceasefire tension
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
3 articles
Developing
8%
▼0¢
1h Iran internet blackout hits 60 days, deepens economic disruption
1h Tehran-Moscow flights resume, signaling de-escalation amid Iran ceasefire
✓ 25h Tehran-Moscow flights resume after US-Israeli strikes suspension
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz ship transit april
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h US blockade traps 20+ vessels at Chah Bahar, Iran maritime action likely
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
1h Iran uranium enrichment standoff persists as April 30 deadline looms
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
1h Bitcoin price eyes $82K rally amid stablecoin inflows, $60K dip less likely
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure from power 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
2h Herzog’s legal advisor opens plea deal talks in Netanyahu corruption trial
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
· 2h ago
6%
▼0¢
2h Israel extends state of emergency to May 7 amid Lebanon shelling
Likely NO
XRP price april 13-19
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h Blockchain Association pushes to remove reputation risk from bank supervision
Likely NO
Pharos public sale commitments
1 article
· 3h ago
97%
▼0¢
3h Kyriba integrates USDC, Circle into treasury platform amid stablecoin regulation
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi enter Iran 6% FLAT
3h Rumors swirl over Mojtaba Khamenei’s death, Iran leadership change uncertain
Likely NO
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
· 3h ago
75%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
3h China condemns US sanctions on refineries linked to Iranian crude
Likely NO
ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h ECB raises 2026 inflation forecast amid energy price surge
Likely NO
Bulgarian parliamentary election outcomes
1 article
· 3h ago
97%
▼0¢
3h Rumen Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria wins parliamentary majority
Likely NO
Diplomatic meetings with Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 1% FLAT
✓ 23h Trump meets security officials as Iran diplomacy stalls
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 28 100% FLAT
✓ 23h BitMine’s ether holdings surpass 5M after $241.4M purchase
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
4h IDF destroys Hezbollah’s largest tunnel network amid ceasefire stability
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 4h ago
9%
▼0¢
4h Netanyahu’s stance dims hopes for Israel-Iran peace deal by April 30
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
1 article
· 4h ago
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
4h US confirms partial reopening of Strait of Hormuz, easing oil supply fears
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap in april
1 article
· 5h ago
99.9%
▼0¢
5h Alphabet’s $175B-$185B AI capex plan doubles prior levels amid antitrust scrutiny
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 5h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 60% FLAT
5h US reviews Iran proposal as Israel-Iran peace talks stall
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Russia to recruit 18,500 foreign fighters by 2026, signals prolonged conflict
Likely NO
XRP price in april
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h SEC approves XRP for fast-tracked trust shares, boosting institutional appeal
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h $500M USDC minted on Solana amid stablecoin surge
Likely NO
ECB interest rates in april 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
1%
▼0¢
5h Iran conflict threatens over half of Middle East urea production