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5h US blockade traps 20+ vessels at Chah Bahar, Iran maritime action likely
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
5h US blockade traps 20+ vessels at Chah Bahar, Iran maritime action likely
▲ Strait of hormuz ship transit april
91% (was 86%, ▲5¢ in 5h)
YES ▲3¢
Iran successfully targets ships by april 30
2 articles
Developing
91%
▲3¢
1h Panama Canal sees transit growth amid Middle East tensions, Iran threat persists
3h Russian missile strike spills 6,000 tons of sunflower oil into Black Sea
NO ▲2¢
Crude oil price by end of june
1 article
· 7h ago
73%
▼2¢
⚡ Trump visit to China 0% FLAT
7h China condemns US sanctions on refineries linked to Iranian crude
NO ▲1¢
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
3 articles
Developing
22%
▼1¢
1h Wheat futures hit 2-year high as Iran war disrupts fertilizer supply
2h Iran achieves atomic power status amid US-Israeli tensions
4h US natural gas exports maxed out as Strait of Hormuz closure impacts supply
NO ▲1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
16%
▼1¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 16% FLAT
⚡ Putin meeting with Iranian officials 100% FLAT
2h Iran blames US for failed peace talks during Putin visit
NO ▲1¢
Iran coup attempt
1 article
· 3h ago
18%
▼1¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 18% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 60% FLAT
✓ 23h Iran proposes military control of Strait of Hormuz, raising tensions
YES ▲1¢
Ethereum price predictions in april
1 article
· 4h ago
93%
▲1¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 92% FLAT
✓ 34h Tech selloff raises AI concerns, Nvidia market cap odds dip
NO ▲1¢
Starmer out timing predictions
2 articles
· 4h ago
66%
▼1¢
✓ 24h UK MPs reject probe into PM Starmer over Mandelson appointment
✓ 37h UK MPs reject probe into Mandelson claims, shoring up Starmer’s position
YES ▲1¢
Fed rate cuts in 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
44%
▲1¢
4h Fed likely to hold rates steady despite leadership change, oil prices rise
YES ▲1¢
Trump Iran demands (april)
1 article
· 5h ago
16%
▲1¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 1% FLAT
5h Rubio warns against Iran control of waterways, doubts US agreement by April 30
Likely NO
Fall of the Iranian regime
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
3m Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
✓ 241m Trump claims Iran seeks end to naval blockade amid diplomatic hints
Likely NO
Crude oil prices by end of june
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h Middle East tensions push WTI crude price expectations to $160 by April 2026
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire predictions
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h Ukraine drone strikes intensify, complicating peace outlook
Likely NO
US invasion of Iran
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran ceasefire 3% FLAT
✓ 31h Iran proposes reopening Strait of Hormuz post-war, US rejects conditions
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
1h BeYachad alliance opposes Netanyahu, impacts Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire prospects
Likely NO
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
58%
▼0¢
1h USS Rafael Peralta reinforces US blockade on Iranian ports in Hormuz Strait
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
4 articles
Developing
30%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 1% FLAT
1h Vance questions Pentagon war narrative, highlights US weapons stockpile concerns
4h Iran hardliners clash over US nuclear talks as deal hopes fade
5h US intelligence assesses Iran’s potential response to Trump victory claim
Likely NO
US crude oil reserves by may 1
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
1h Sweden warns of jet fuel shortage amid Middle East conflict concerns
Likely NO
Ethereum price in 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
✓ 21h Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $263M, ending nine-day inflow streak before FOMC meeting
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
2 articles
· 2h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions april 20-26 100% FLAT
2h Robinhood Q1 crypto revenue falls 47% amid global retail activity decline
✓ 24h Strategy buys 3,273 Bitcoin for $255M amid Strait of Hormuz crisis
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Gulf state military action against Iran 2% FLAT
3h Israel deploys Iron Dome, troops to UAE amid Iran conflict
Likely NO
Bitcoin all time high by date
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
3h Bitmine amasses $13.3B Ethereum treasury, aims for 5% supply control
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
2 articles
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
✓ 23h IDF strikes Hezbollah in Lebanon, ceasefire credibility strained
5h Contractor linked to Israeli Defense Ministry killed in Lebanon
Likely NO
China annual GDP growth 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
0%
▼0¢
3h China property prices hit 20-year low, impacting GDP growth forecasts
Likely NO
Fed decision in april 2026
1 article
· 4h ago
86%
▼0¢
⚡ Fed decision in july 2026 86% FLAT
4h Middle East tensions keep central banks cautious on rate cuts amid inflation
Likely NO
Iran military action against countries
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
4h Hezbollah upgrades drones with fiber-optic tech, impacting Israel ceasefire outlook
Likely NO
Putin meeting with Iranian officials
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
4h Putin meets Iranian officials, confirming diplomatic ties without military shift
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
2 articles
· 4h ago
0%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
✓ 34h Trump considers Iranian offer to reopen Strait of Hormuz, easing oil tensions
6h Iran conflict worsens Somalia’s malnutrition crisis, raises food costs
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
· 5h ago
8%
▼0¢
5h Iran internet blackout hits 60 days, deepens economic disruption
5h Tehran-Moscow flights resume, signaling de-escalation amid Iran ceasefire
Likely NO
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
1 article
· 5h ago
100%
▼0¢
5h Iran uranium enrichment standoff persists as April 30 deadline looms
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
1 article
· 5h ago
5%
▼0¢
5h Bitcoin price eyes $82K rally amid stablecoin inflows, $60K dip less likely
Likely NO
Netanyahu out
1 article
· 6h ago
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure from power 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
6h Herzog’s legal advisor opens plea deal talks in Netanyahu corruption trial
Likely NO
Netanyahu's tenure
1 article
· 6h ago
6%
▼0¢
6h Israel extends state of emergency to May 7 amid Lebanon shelling
Likely NO
XRP price april 13-19
1 article
· 6h ago
100%
▼0¢
6h Blockchain Association pushes to remove reputation risk from bank supervision
Likely NO
Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april
1 article
· 6h ago
2%
▼0¢
6h Hakeem Jeffries calls for ‘maximum warfare’ before Trump assassination attempt
Likely NO
Pharos public sale commitments
1 article
· 6h ago
97%
▼0¢
6h Kyriba integrates USDC, Circle into treasury platform amid stablecoin regulation
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
· 7h ago
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi enter Iran 6% FLAT
7h Rumors swirl over Mojtaba Khamenei’s death, Iran leadership change uncertain
Likely NO
ECB interest rates predictions for april 2026
1 article
· 7h ago
0%
▼0¢
7h ECB raises 2026 inflation forecast amid energy price surge