Bitcoin ETF outflows hit $263M, ending nine-day inflow streak before FOMC meeting

Bitcoin ETF outflows reached $263 million, ending a nine-day inflow streak just before the FOMC meeting. Bitcoin’s price is now below $77,000, and the odds of Bitcoin surpassing $86,000 by April 30 sit at 0.2% YES, down from 1% just a day ago.

The Bitcoin price on April 30 market has shifted sharply with only two days to go. The market has a face value of $5,189 daily, but actual trading reached only $127 in USDC over the last 24 hours. A mere $242 can move this market by 5 percentage points, meaning a single large trade could cause a significant swing.

The Bitcoin all-time high by June 30 market has odds at 2.9% YES. That market is slightly more active with $901 actual USDC traded daily, but still thin. The term structure shows a 7-point increase in odds from June to September, suggesting traders see a better chance of recovery in the latter half of the year.

The outflows point to a cautious market ahead of the FOMC meeting. Traders are wary of macroeconomic factors, particularly potential interest rate changes, and confidence across Bitcoin-related markets has dropped accordingly. At 0.2¢, a YES share on Bitcoin exceeding $86,000 by April 30 offers a 500x return, but that’s a lottery ticket, not an investment strategy.

Watch for FOMC announcements, as any unexpected moves in interest rates could shift Bitcoin’s price. ETF inflow and outflow data will also signal whether institutional positioning is changing.

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