Russia raises 2026 oil export outlook to 244.7 million tons despite lowest production since 2009
Moscow is pivoting toward raw crude exports as refinery damage and sanctions gut its domestic refining capacity
Russia just bumped its 2026 crude oil export forecast to 244.7 million tons, an increase of 7.5 million tons from its previous estimate issued in May. On the surface, that looks like a country flexing its energy muscles. Dig a little deeper and the picture gets more complicated.
The export boost isn’t coming from a production surge. It’s coming from the opposite: Russia’s refineries are getting hammered, leaving more unprocessed crude available to ship overseas.
Production is falling, exports are rising
Russia’s oil and condensate production for 2026 is now forecast at 494.2 million tons. That would be the country’s lowest output since 2009, down significantly from an estimated 511.4 million tons in 2025.
The ongoing conflict with Ukraine has taken a measurable toll on Russian energy infrastructure. Drone strikes on refineries have reduced domestic processing capacity, creating a paradox where less production somehow translates into more exports.
With refineries offline or operating at reduced capacity, Russia simply has fewer places to send its crude domestically. So it ships it abroad, primarily to China and India, the two buyers that have been happy to absorb discounted Russian barrels since Western sanctions reshaped global trade flows.
Refined product exports tell the other side of the story. Those are projected to fall to just 98.5 million tons in 2026, a decline of 27.3 million tons from 2025 levels. That’s a steep drop, roughly a 22% cut year over year.
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A strategic pivot or a forced hand
The refined product export decline also reflects a decision to prioritize domestic fuel supply, a move born more of necessity than choice given the fuel shortages Russia has been grappling with.
Russia’s forecasts for 2026 through 2029 have been slashed by 16 to 20 million tons compared to earlier projections. A recovery to 500 million tons is anticipated by 2027, but even that figure sits below what Moscow previously expected for that year.
After the 2026 export peak, crude shipments are projected to decline to 216.6 million tons by the 2028-2029 period.
The forecast itself is still technically in draft form. It’s set to be finalized by the end of September 2026 as part of Russia’s federal budget planning process.
What this means for global oil markets
More Russian crude flowing to Asia means continued pressure on traditional Middle Eastern suppliers competing for market share in China and India.
On the refined products side, a 27.3-million-ton drop in refined product exports creates a supply gap that other refiners, particularly in the Middle East, Asia, and the US Gulf Coast, will need to fill. That could put upward pressure on refining margins globally.