Saudi Arabia has asked the US to lift its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz to prevent regional escalation and protect energy routes. The odds for Donald Trump announcing the end of the blockade by May 31, 2026, are at 83.5% YES.

The May 31 market has climbed 55 points from April 19 over 42 days. Short-term markets tell a different story: April 15 sits at 6%, while April 19 is at 28.5% YES, suggesting traders see some chance of a catalyst within the next week but doubt immediate action.

Trading volume is $19,947 in USDC over the past 24 hours. It takes $3,518 to move the May 31 odds by 5 points, indicating reasonable market depth. The largest price move was a 20-point spike at 5:50 PM, from 52% to 72%.

Saudi Arabia’s request comes during a fragile ceasefire, with concerns that Houthi retaliation could close the Bab al-Mandeb Strait and disrupt global trade and energy flows. That threat adds direct pressure on the US to reconsider the blockade. The market prices in a moderate probability that the Trump administration yields to these pressures before the May 31 deadline.

For traders, buying YES on the May 31 market at 83¢ pays $1 if the blockade is lifted, a 1.2x return. The bet depends on whether Saudi diplomatic efforts change US policy.

Watch for statements from Trump or the Pentagon, particularly any shifts in operational language or diplomatic engagement with Iran and Saudi Arabia. A breakthrough in US-Iran talks or a publicized Saudi-US agreement would move these markets sharply.

Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.