Saudi Arabia’s oil exports recover to 4M bpd in September after hitting decade low

Saudi Arabia’s oil exports have surged back above 4 million barrels per day in September, a dramatic reversal from the 2.4 million bpd recorded in August, which marked the kingdom’s weakest export month since at least 2013. The recovery, tracked by analytics firm Kpler, reveals how quickly Saudi Aramco can reroute its entire export infrastructure when circumstances demand it.

The circumstances in this case: Houthi attacks that forced the suspension of the East-West pipeline, which normally carries crude from the kingdom’s eastern oil fields to its Red Sea port at Yanbu. No shipments have left Yanbu since September 12. So Aramco did what any resourceful operation would do when the front door gets blocked. It found a side entrance.

The rerouting playbook

With the East-West pipeline offline, Saudi Aramco concentrated loadings at its Gulf coast terminals, Ras Tanura and Juaymah. Combined output from those two facilities has hit roughly 4 million bpd, absorbing the volume that would have otherwise flowed through Yanbu.

But the more creative maneuver involves ship-to-ship transfers. Aramco has sold approximately 60 million barrels earmarked for September and October loadings through transfers at Oman’s Sohar port, bypassing the disrupted Red Sea route entirely. The primary buyers: China, South Korea, India, and Japan, the usual cast of Asia’s biggest crude importers.

Satellite and maritime tracking data confirm the shift in real time. Oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz climbed from an average of 1.2 million bpd on September 1 to 1.9 million bpd by mid-month. That’s a 58% increase in daily flow through the world’s most important oil chokepoint in just two weeks.

Middle Eastern oil flows overall averaged 17.1 million bpd during the first half of September, only a modest decline from 2025 averages. The region’s export machine, in other words, is still running close to normal despite a pipeline shutdown and ongoing security threats.

Price impact and market dynamics

The flood of additional supply has already started pushing prices down. Brent and WTI futures have both declined by more than $1 per barrel as the market absorbs the news of Saudi Arabia’s export recovery.

The 60 million barrels being routed through Sohar represent a meaningful chunk of supply that Asian refiners were worried about losing. China alone imports roughly 11 million bpd, and any disruption to Saudi flows, its second-largest supplier, ripples through refining margins across the Pacific basin.

That said, the arrangement is inherently fragile. Ship-to-ship transfers at Sohar add cost, complexity, and transit time compared to direct loadings at Yanbu. And concentrating all exports through the Strait of Hormuz creates its own vulnerability. The strait handles roughly 20% of global oil supply on any given day.