SpaceX’s IPO lockup begins expiring in August, testing market appetite for $123 billion in newly tradable shares
The largest IPO in US history is about to face its first real stress test, and crypto investors have seen this movie before.
SpaceX’s first major lockup expiration is set to hit in early August, releasing roughly 911.5 million shares, valued at approximately $123 billion at recent prices, into a market that’s already struggling to hold the stock above its $135 IPO price.
The unlock schedule, explained
SpaceX went public around June 11, 2026, listing on Nasdaq under the ticker SPCX at $135 per share. The IPO pushed the company’s valuation past $2 trillion, making it the largest public offering in US history.
Less than 5% of SpaceX’s total shares were actually released into the public float at launch. Rather than the standard single 180-day lockup that most IPOs use, SpaceX implemented a staggered release schedule. Tranches of roughly 7% unlock at days 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 after the IPO.
The first major wave hits approximately two trading days after the company reports Q2 earnings, unlocking between 20% and 30% of total shares. A second large tranche of about 28% follows after Q3 earnings. By December 8, 2026, when the full 180-day period concludes, roughly 40% of all SpaceX shares will be freely tradable.
Elon Musk’s shares carry a 366-day lockup, meaning he can’t sell until approximately June 2027.
The supply-demand math gets uncomfortable
SpaceX shares are already trading in the $124 to $135 range as of mid-July, below the IPO price. The first major unlock lands right after Q2 earnings, meaning the stock will simultaneously be digesting financial results and absorbing a massive supply increase.