Strait of Hormuz traffic remains near halt amid Iranian restrictions

The Strait of Hormuz saw only four vessels pass through yesterday, continuing its effective closure. The market for normal traffic returning by May 15 is at 16.5% YES, down from 20% twenty-four hours ago.

Market reaction

The market for normal traffic by May 15 dropped 3.5 points as Iranian restrictions persist, with only 21 days left until resolution. The market for UK warships passing through before April 30 sits at 0.9% YES, down from 12% a week ago. The order book on that contract is thin: just $783 would move it 5 points.

The largest volume is in the market for lifting the US blockade by May 31, priced at 57.5% YES, down from 72% yesterday. That contract has $95,253 in actual USDC volume.

Why it matters

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly a fifth of global oil shipments. Four vessels in a day is a near-total stoppage. The blockade-lifting market falling 14.5 points in one day signals that traders see diplomatic progress stalling, particularly with Putin’s continued support for Iran.

What to watch

At 16¢, a YES share on Hormuz traffic normalizing by May 15 pays $1 if resolved, a potential 6.06x return. That bet requires rapid geopolitical shifts with no visible easing of maritime restrictions so far. Any announcements from CENTCOM or changes in Iranian policy could move shipping lane access. A regional or international diplomatic initiative would be the most likely catalyst.

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