TD Cowen raises Bitcoin price target to $280,000 by 2029
The broker also lifted its year-end call to $109,000 while holding its Strategy target at $260, a sign that treasury companies remain central to its thesis
TD Cowen has raised its long-range Bitcoin forecast, setting a 2029 price target of $280,000.
The numbers behind the call
On October 8, 2026, TD Cowen revised its year-end 2026 Bitcoin projection to approximately $109,000. That reverses a downgrade the firm made in September, when it cut its 2026 target to $97,500 after the price slipped.
The catalyst, per the firm, was Bitcoin’s third quarter. It closed Q3 2026 around $76,000, beating some of the assumptions TD Cowen had built into its earlier models.
Analyst Lance Vitanza’s longer-term math rests on steady annual gains. He estimates Bitcoin could appreciate by 20% to 30% annually, and the $280,000 target for 2029 follows from that range.
The firm also kept its price target on Strategy (MSTR) at $260. That held steady even as the Bitcoin outlook improved.
Why the treasury company angle matters
TD Cowen pointed to capital markets structures tied to Bitcoin treasury companies as a growing trend, noting that institutional attitudes have shifted toward exposure strategies rather than simply buying and holding coins.
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TD Cowen quantified that view. The firm expects potential 50% outperformance for well-managed Bitcoin treasury companies compared with spot Bitcoin holdings.
The dilution problem at Strategy
TD Cowen expects that Strategy’s stock issuance could weigh on per-share gains, offsetting some of the benefit from a rising Bitcoin price. When a treasury company sells new shares to fund more Bitcoin purchases, total holdings rise, but existing shareholders own a smaller piece of the larger pile.
Leaving the $260 target untouched suggests TD Cowen sees those forces roughly cancelling out for now.
A forecast that already changed once this fall
In September, price weakness pushed the firm to lower its 2026 year-end target to $97,500. By early October, a stronger-than-modeled third quarter was enough to lift it to around $109,000.
The gap between the Q3 close around $76,000 and a year-end target near $109,000 is substantial. Bitcoin would need a strong final quarter to get there.
What this means for investors
For investors weighing Strategy against spot Bitcoin, TD Cowen sees real potential in treasury companies, yet also flags dilution as a drag on Strategy specifically. The thesis that managed treasury vehicles can beat direct ownership depends on disciplined capital raising.
Key markers to track include Bitcoin’s fourth-quarter performance against the roughly $109,000 year-end call, the pace of Strategy’s share issuance, and whether TD Cowen revises its targets again when the year closes.