Tehran lost over 18.5 million gallons of fuel due to tank destruction, according to the governor. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 market sits at 8.5% YES, up from 8% yesterday.

Market reaction

The loss of fuel and gas facilities exposes a concrete weakness in Iran’s domestic energy supply. With 67 days until the June 30 market resolution, traders have nudged regime instability odds slightly higher. The market requires $16,830 to shift odds 5 points, indicating moderate liquidity.

Why it matters

The 8.5% YES odds remain low, meaning the market is skeptical about near-term regime collapse. But continued attacks on energy infrastructure could worsen domestic conditions and feed internal dissent. The gas company’s rationing announcement adds to that pressure. Daily USDC volume in this market is $35,587, with a face value of $423,658.

What to watch

A YES share at 8.5¢ pays $1 if the regime falls by June 30, a 11.76x return. That payout only makes sense if you expect significant destabilization over the next 67 days. Watch for IRGC defections, major protests, or shifts in military command as signals that could move this market.

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