Trump claims Iran ready for talks, Tehran denies; US-Iran peace deal odds drop

Trump says Iran is prepared to negotiate, but Tehran denies any talks are happening. The market for a US-Iran peace deal by April 30 sits at 9.5% YES, down from 61% a week ago.

The April 30 contract has collapsed to 9.5% YES, a 51-point drop in one week. The May 31 contract is holding at 40.5% YES, and the June 30 contract is the highest at 55.0% YES. A 6-point spike earlier today retraced quickly.

The enrichment agreement market looks similar. Ending uranium enrichment by April 30 is priced at 5.9% YES. This is a thinly traded market, with less than $5K in USDC changing hands. Depth is shallow: it costs just $2,529 to move the price 5 points.

The market on Trump agreeing to Iranian demands for oil sanction relief has also cratered. The April sub-market is at 16.0% YES, down from 62% a week ago. Only $1,944 in USDC has traded, and just $119 can move the price 5 points, making this market extremely reactive to even small orders.

The contradictory statements from Trump and Iran have pushed traders toward skepticism across every related contract. With the April 30 peace deal at 9.5¢ per YES share, a resolution would pay $1, a 10.5x return. But that bet requires a diplomatic breakthrough within six days while the two sides publicly disagree about whether negotiations are even happening.

Watch for movement from Pakistani mediators or surprise announcements from Tehran or the White House. Any concrete sign of resumed talks or a shift in either side’s public stance could move these thin markets fast.

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