Trump called a Situation Room meeting amid the renewed crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Odds of a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30 sit at 13% YES, down from 22% a day ago.

The diplomatic meeting market dropped despite increased diplomatic activity, suggesting traders are skeptical about imminent talks. The largest move was a 6-point spike at 7:32 PM, but it quickly reversed. With $5,026 in daily actual USDC trading, it takes just $283 to move the price by 5 points, making the market vulnerable to single large trades. Explore the market.

WTI Crude Oil prices in April are at 1.4% YES for hitting $160, up slightly from 1% yesterday. The Hormuz blockade and US readiness for strikes are pushing oil prices, though cautiously. A 25-point spike in the crude market suggests sensitivity to the geopolitical situation. See the oil price market.

The peace deal market for April 22 plummeted to 19.5% YES from 40% a day ago. Trump’s meeting implies escalation, not resolution, and traders are pricing in lower peace prospects accordingly. Even with $1.6M in daily actual USDC traded, odds reflect pessimism on immediate diplomacy. Check the peace deal market.

Market liquidity varies widely. The peace deal market is deep at $1.6M in daily USDC, but the diplomatic meeting market’s $283 depth means single trades can move it. A 5-point move in the peace deal market requires $9,366, showing far more resistance to isolated orders.

A YES share in the diplomatic meeting market at 13¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a 7.7x return. That bet requires belief in rapid diplomatic shifts before the April 30 deadline.

Watch for Trump’s next moves and any signals from Tehran about potential talks. A tweet or press statement could swing these markets fast.

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