Trump drops missile demands in US-Iran talks, peace deal remains elusive

Trump has reportedly dropped demands on ballistic missiles and proxies in US-Iran negotiations. A deal remains elusive: the US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026, now sits at 0.1% YES, down from 1% yesterday.

Odds for Trump announcing the end of the Strait of Hormuz blockade by May 31, 2026, have dropped to 75.5%, down from 82% a day ago. The odds of a permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, are now at 15.5%, down sharply as traders price in skepticism about a near-term breakthrough.

The term structure shows a clear shift in trader expectations. The peace deal by May 31, 2026, trades at 40% YES, down from 52% yesterday. The largest gap in the term structure falls between April 30 and May 31, which suggests traders expect a possible catalyst in late April or early May. The market has $433,823 in actual USDC traded. It takes $11,259 to move the odds by 5 points, indicating moderate resistance to price swings.

Dropping the missile and proxy demands narrows the negotiating scope to the nuclear issue and the Strait of Hormuz. But the remaining issues have stalled progress on their own. At 16¢, a YES share for an April 30 peace deal pays $1 if successful, a potential 6.25x return. That’s a high-risk, high-reward position that depends on rapid diplomatic movement in the next few weeks.

Watch for statements from Trump (particularly on Truth Social) and any announcements from Iranian officials or mediators. External pressures, such as shifts in regional alliances or economic fallout from the blockade, could also force movement.

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