Photo: Gage Skidmore from Surprise, AZ, United States of America / Wikimedia Commons / CC BY-SA 2.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0)
Donald Trump bets on patience to influence Iran, impacting oil markets
The president's 'semi-negotiating' strategy with Tehran is keeping crude prices volatile and traders on edge as the standoff drags into its sixth month
Six months into a conflict with Iran that has closed one of the world’s most important shipping lanes, President Donald Trump appears content to let the clock run. His strategy: squeeze Tehran’s economy until it blinks, and don’t rush to the negotiating table. The result is an oil market stuck in a perpetual state of anxiety.
Brent crude is trading around $84 per barrel while West Texas Intermediate hovers between $78 and $80.
The Strait that holds the global economy hostage
The standoff centers on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway between Iran and the Arabian Peninsula through which roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade passes. Iran closed it in late February 2026, and it has stayed shut ever since.
Trump has described the ongoing back-and-forth with Tehran as “only semi-negotiating,” a phrase that captures his approach with unusual precision. The US is applying economic pressure rather than pursuing a formal diplomatic track, betting that Iran’s deteriorating financial situation will eventually force concessions.
Iran’s inflation is climbing, its government funds are thinning, and a US naval blockade has crippled operations at Kharg Island, the country’s primary oil export terminal.
New players, familiar demands
Tehran isn’t exactly rolling over, though. Iran recently appointed Mohsen Rezaei, a veteran of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, as its national security chief. Rezaei has laid out a set of preconditions for reopening the Strait that Washington is unlikely to accept without significant concessions of its own.
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Iran’s demands include lifting US sanctions and withdrawing the naval forces enforcing the blockade.
Meanwhile, oil markets have developed a Pavlovian response to the news cycle. Every pause in military strikes sends crude prices dipping. Every new threat or escalation pushes them back up.
Domestic pressure builds on both sides
The patience strategy has a shelf life, and the expiration date might be closer than the White House would like. With midterm elections approaching, the political calculus is shifting underneath Trump’s feet.
Polling shows that support for the ongoing conflict is weak, even among Republican voters.
US military leadership appears to recognize the problem. Signals from within the defense establishment suggest a growing appetite for what strategists call an “off-ramp,” a way to de-escalate without appearing to capitulate.
The diminishing set of options available to Washington is becoming a talking point among market analysts. A prolonged stalemate keeps oil prices elevated, which feeds into inflation at home.
The risk for investors is asymmetric. A breakthrough deal could send crude prices tumbling as the Strait reopens and Iranian oil flows back onto global markets. But a further escalation, or even just continued stalemate, keeps prices propped up at levels that strain consumers and businesses dependent on affordable energy.