The UK is working closely with the US on security measures as King Charles prepares for his US visit. Crude oil remains over $105 a barrel amid Strait of Hormuz tensions. The crude oil all time high by April 30 market is at 1.4% YES, down from 2% a day ago.

Market reaction

This cooperation is partly aimed at repairing UK-US ties strained by the US-Iran conflict. Oil traders are watching the Strait of Hormuz, which handles a large share of global oil transit. The crude oil all time high by April 30 market saw a brief 1-point spike at 5:31 AM, rising from 3% to 4% before settling back. At these odds, traders are skeptical that prices will pass the all-time high of $120/barrel within six days.

Why it matters

The face value reads $100,828 per day, but actual trading volume is just $2,513 daily. The market is thin: only $695 is needed to move prices by five points. That makes it vulnerable to sudden shifts if a major geopolitical event occurs, whether an Iranian export ban or a permanent closure of the Strait.

What to watch

Current odds reflect traders betting against significant oil supply disruptions. A YES share is priced at 1¢, offering a 100x return if it resolves YES. For that bet to make economic sense, you’d need to believe a dramatic geopolitical shift will happen within six days. Watch for US and UK government announcements on security measures and any changes in OPEC+ strategy. Signs of peace talks or strategic petroleum reserve releases would likely push these odds lower.

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