Recent reports indicate that over half of Russia’s oil refining capacity is offline following a series of Ukrainian attacks, as stated by Tenet Research. The reported downtime affects around 4.3 million barrels per day (bpd), accounting for approximately 58% of Russia’s total refining capacity. This development has led to a significant reduction in refining runs, which have fallen to about 3.80 million bpd, marking the lowest level since March 2005. The attacks, primarily through drone strikes on at least 25 refineries since August 2025, have also resulted in domestic fuel shortages and price hikes in Russia.

Market participants appear to interpret these disruptions as potentially impactful on global oil supply, which could influence WTI crude oil prices. The market for WTI Crude Oil in July 2026 has seen notable activity, with the probability of hitting higher price targets adjusting in response to the situation. The likelihood of WTI reaching $90 in July currently stands at 35.9% YES, suggesting a significant recalibration from previous estimates.

The geopolitical tension, combined with the operational challenges faced by Russian refineries, has led to a reallocation of crude exports, with expectations of increased shipments from western ports.

Key Takeaways

• Reports suggest over 58% of Russia’s oil refining capacity is offline, impacting global oil supply perceptions.
• WTI crude oil pricing appears to adjust in response, with probabilities for higher price targets reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions.
• Recent market activity suggests participants are adjusting their expectations for July’s oil prices in light of these developments.

What to Watch

Market observers will be closely monitoring further developments in the geopolitical landscape, particularly any escalation in the conflict between Ukraine and Russia that could further impact oil supplies. Additionally, updates from major oil producers, such as OPEC+, regarding potential production adjustments could influence market dynamics. Continued monitoring of repair efforts and the operational status of Russian refineries will also be critical in assessing future market movements.

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