US warns businesses on Iranian airlines, sanctions possible

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned businesses working with Iranian airlines of potential US sanctions. The US-Iran diplomatic meeting market, which predicts no qualifying meeting by June 30, sits at 19.3% YES, up from 9% a day ago.

The warning is part of the broader US “Economic Fury” campaign aimed at pressuring Tehran. Odds for no US-Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30 have more than doubled in 24 hours, with 67 days left until resolution. Daily USDC volume is $6,833, and only $141 is needed to move the odds by 5 points, meaning relatively small trades can cause sharp swings.

The Iran uranium enrichment agreement market is nearly dead at 0.9% YES, down from 50% a week ago. Six days remain until resolution. The largest recent move was a minor 2-point spike.

The sanctions threat fits a pattern of hardline US actions that reduce the probability of near-term diplomatic engagement. For traders, buying YES on no diplomatic meeting by June 30 at 19¢ pays $1 if it resolves, a potential 5.2x return.

Watch for statements from Vice President J.D. Vance or Iranian officials. A White House confirmation that no further talks are planned would likely push odds higher, while any sign of new negotiations could reverse the trend.

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