VanEck says 8 of 12 BTC capitulation signals are firing as Bitcoin nears potential bottom

VanEck said in its mid August 2026 Bitcoin ChainCheck report that eight of the 12 Bitcoin capitulation signals it tracks are currently firing, suggesting the market may be approaching the end of its correction phase and nearing a potential bottom.

VanEck said all 12 indicators entered their respective capitulation zones at some point over the past three months. The firm generally considers signals to be firing when readings reach historical extremes, with price drawdown treated separately using a decline of at least 35%.

Bitcoin closed August 11 at $63,549, nearly unchanged over the previous month, while 30 day realized volatility fell to 27.2%, well below its long term average of around 80%. BTC remained about 49% below its all time high.

VanEck said Bitcoin appears to have experienced capitulation and could now be nearing or entering an accumulation phase. Previous Bitcoin bear markets have averaged about 11 months from peak to trough, while the current drawdown from the October 2025 peak has entered its tenth month.

The firm cautioned that historical returns following similar capitulation clusters have been mixed. Periods with eight to 12 indicators firing produced average 90 day and 180 day returns below Bitcoin’s broader historical baseline, while one year returns performed better based on a relatively small sample.

Long term holders have also continued moving coins. Bitcoin held for more than one year fell by roughly 356,000 BTC over the past 30 days to 11.84 million BTC, pushing the group below 60% of circulating supply for the first time in months.