AI is pulling in global cash, and the US government is feeling the squeeze

The world’s money has a favorite destination right now, and it’s a short list of American tech companies building artificial intelligence.

A Bloomberg Originals documentary released on October 8, 2026, argues it’s more complicated: the flood of capital into AI is creating problems for the US government, developing nations and the global economy at large.

Where the money is going, and where it isn’t

Since the AI investment surge took off after 2022, global capital has clustered around a handful of US firms, often grouped together as the “Magnificent 7.”

According to the documentary, that surge is redirecting money away from three areas that used to compete for it: US sovereign debt, investment in developing nations and traditional industrial sectors.

The documentary links this shift to the highest trade imbalances seen since the 2008 financial crisis.

Cross-border holdings tied to the US have quadrupled since 2008 and now stand at around 80% of net creditor nations’ foreign holdings.

Nomura’s warning about hidden risk

A Nomura analysis dated September 30, 2026, adds a sharper edge to the picture.

Nomura says the AI boom has driven a growing concentration in US dollar assets, and that this concentration has masked a rising risk premium attached to US investments. If AI’s fortunes turn, Nomura flags several possible consequences: equity corrections, capital flight and a weaker dollar.

The research notes that US net primary income, which tracks what the country earns on foreign investments minus what it pays foreigners on theirs, has slipped into deficit. Net interest payments now surpass defense spending in some metrics.

The scale of the AI buildout

Projected cumulative AI capex could reach upwards of $10 trillion between 2025 and 2032.

Funding is increasingly coming through debt and off-balance-sheet arrangements, with heavy reliance on corporate bonds and private credit. The research says this financing pattern is worsening supply-chain concentration and producing uneven returns on investment around the world.

Why developing nations are on the hook

Emerging economies typically need outside investment to build infrastructure, expand industry and refinance debt. When global investors are fixated on AI returns in the US, those countries end up competing for a smaller pool of attention. If an AI reversal sparks a global risk-off move, the research warns that the pain could spread well beyond American markets.

What this means

The research lays out what a reversal could look like. A turn in AI’s fortunes could widen both the US fiscal deficit and the current-account deficit, push the dollar lower and trigger a broad global retreat from risk.

For policymakers, Washington needs steady demand for its debt, and it is now competing with its own most successful companies for global savings.

Watch whether AI capex keeps rising toward those multi-trillion-dollar projections, and whether more of it shifts into private credit and off-balance-sheet structures. Watch the US net primary income line and the cost of servicing federal debt.