Anthropic / Wikimedia Commons (Public domain)
Traders see 57% chance of Anthropic IPO in November
Prediction markets price the Claude maker's public debut as a coin flip with a thumb on the scale, as the AI giant eyes a potential $2 trillion first-day valuation.
Prediction market traders are giving Anthropic slightly better than even odds of going public before December, with platforms like Polymarket showing 54-58.5% probability of an IPO by November 30, 2026. Kalshi, meanwhile, has priced the chance of an IPO announcement before December 1 at 54%.
Those odds climb meaningfully if you extend the window. By December 31, the probability jumps to roughly 74-79%.
The road to going public
Anthropic confidentially filed a draft S-1 registration statement with the SEC on June 1, 2026. The original target was an October launch. That timeline has since shifted to November, reportedly to incorporate Q3 earnings data ahead of US midterm elections. A public prospectus is expected in late September, with a marketing roadshow kicking off in mid-October.
Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, and Citi are lined up as lead underwriters. The company is also reportedly seeking a $15 billion revolving credit facility to support its growth trajectory. On top of that, Anthropic is exploring a capital raise of up to $100 billion to facilitate the IPO itself.
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A nearly $1 trillion company before it even lists
Its last private valuation landed at $965 billion following a $65 billion Series H funding round that closed on May 28, 2026. The company’s annualized revenue run rate exceeded $65 billion by the end of July 2026, with forecasts pushing that number above $110 billion by year-end. Public market forecasts imply a potential first-day market capitalization near or above $1.8-2 trillion.
What prediction markets are actually telling us
A 57% probability means traders see this as likely but far from certain. Anthropic shifting from October to November already demonstrates that flexibility. The jump from roughly 57% in November to 74-79% by December suggests traders believe the most likely alternative to a November IPO isn’t cancellation ā it’s a few weeks of delay.
A $100 billion capital raise would be among the largest IPOs in history. The timing relative to US midterm elections adds another variable, with companies generally preferring to go public during periods of political stability and market calm.