Global stock markets are having a moment. The S&P 500 has pushed into record territory, trading between 7,600 and 7,763, while the Nasdaq is clocking double-digit gains in 2026 on the back of strong tech earnings and AI enthusiasm. Bitcoin, meanwhile, is sitting in the mid-$60,000s, down roughly 30% year-to-date and about 48% below its October 2025 all-time high above $126,000.

The rally in global equities has a fairly legible storyline behind it. Corporate earnings have held up, geopolitical risk has dialed back with easing tensions around U.S.-Iran relations, and AI-driven tech names continue to attract capital. On top of that, global M2 money supply has climbed to approximately $135 trillion. More liquidity sloshing around the system is historically good for risk assets, including crypto. That is what makes Bitcoin’s performance so puzzling right now: the liquidity conditions that tend to lift it are present, but the price is not responding.

The Nasdaq’s double-digit gains in parts of 2026 stand in stark contrast to Bitcoin’s roughly 33% decline over the same period. The correlation between Bitcoin and the S&P 500 has typically exceeded 70%, making the current divergence genuinely unusual.

Mining dynamics and options positioning add complexity

Bitcoin’s hashrate hit all-time highs in 2026, which signals that miners are committing significant resources to the network even as the price has declined. That also creates a persistent sell-side pressure dynamic: miners have to cover operational costs regardless of price, which means consistent selling into a market that is already soft. Options positioning has also been flagged as a contributing factor to Bitcoin’s stickiness in the current range. Heavy open interest at certain strike prices can act like a gravitational pull on spot price, particularly around major expiry dates.

What the divergence means for investors

Bitcoin’s year-to-date performance raises questions about its role in institutional portfolios. When equities post record highs and Bitcoin declines by nearly a third in the same period, the diversification argument takes a hit. Institutional allocators who added Bitcoin exposure in 2024 and 2025 on the premise of low correlation to equities are now facing a scenario where the asset lagged equities badly without providing an offsetting hedge benefit during any notable equity drawdown either.