Bitcoin nears green September close as bulls look to October

Bitcoin traded near $84,000 at press time, up more than 6.5% in September and heading toward a positive close in what has historically been its weakest month.

That recovery gives bulls a constructive starting point for October, which has historically delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest monthly returns, according to CoinGlass data. However, Bitfinex analysts said in their new report on Wednesday that a sustained breakout will require stronger spot buying as ETF inflows slow and overhead supply limits gains.

Bitcoin has recently consolidated around $83,000 to $87,000 as traders await a catalyst. A monthly close above $83,500 would preserve much of September’s advance, although that level alone would not confirm a reversal of the broader downtrend.

The prospect of a green close nevertheless stands out against September’s historical performance. According to CoinGlass data, the month has produced an average loss of approximately 2.4%, while October has delivered an average gain near 20% and a median return around 15%.

That seasonal shift offers a favorable backdrop, but stronger demand will determine whether Bitcoin can capitalize on it.

Spot demand must drive the next move

“With leverage substantially reduced, the next sustained move will need to be led by the spot market,” Bitfinex analysts said in commentary shared with Crypto Briefing.

Their report showed futures open interest measured in Bitcoin falling from more than 700,000 BTC on September 21 to 644,000 BTC on September 29. This reduction limits the potential for cascading liquidations, but also points to weaker speculative appetite.

With fewer leveraged positions driving the market, buying at current prices becomes more important. Bitfinex identified signs of that demand between $82,500 and $84,000, where the amount of Bitcoin with a cost basis in the band increased from approximately 110,000 BTC on September 27 to 306,000 BTC on September 30.

The increase suggests buyers are absorbing coins sold by earlier holders taking profits and recent buyers exiting at a loss. However, a larger concentration of supply sits directly above that developing support.

Approximately 1.39 million BTC has a cost basis between $84,000 and $86,500. As prices recover toward those entry levels, holders seeking to exit near breakeven could limit the advance.

Clearing part of that supply would strengthen the outlook. According to Bitfinex, a recovery above $85,000 would return approximately 760,000 BTC to profit and lift the share of supply in profit above 75%. The firm uses that threshold to help distinguish a new bull market from a recovery within a bear market.

ETF inflows slow despite nine sessions of buying

Absorbing the overhead supply will also depend on the pace of ETF buying. US spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted $3.08 billion over nine consecutive sessions of inflows, according to the report, but the strength of that demand has faded.

Bitfinex’s measure of ETF purchases relative to newly mined Bitcoin declined from 25.6 times daily issuance on September 21 to 1.8 times on September 29. The analysts estimate that a recovery toward five times issuance, equivalent to approximately $190 million in daily inflows, would help clear the resistance band.

If buying accelerates, Bitfinex expects Bitcoin could test the $87,722 yearly open. Beyond that level, the firm identifies $95,000 to $96,700 as a conditional October objective based on seasonality and options positioning.

That outlook remains constructive while Bitcoin holds above $81,300. Sustained trading below the level alongside ETF outflows would undermine the recovery and bring the firm’s $77,000 downside level into focus.

Bitcoin remained comfortably above that threshold at press time, trading near $84,000. However, volatility around the PCE release had failed to produce a sustained move, leaving prices largely sideways heading into the monthly close. Most of the crypto market remained similarly subdued, with Ether near $2,700, XRP at $1.48 and Solana around $118.