Bitcoin rises as weak jobs data dims October hike odds
The market leaned toward a hike a week ago, but that bet has faded sharply.
Bitcoin rose above $87,000 after a weaker-than-expected US jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may leave interest rates unchanged in October.
US employers added 29,000 jobs in September, far below the 89,000 increase economists had forecast, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The report also showed substantial downward revisions to previous months, reducing the combined employment gains for July and August by 60,000.
The unemployment rate has remained between 4.1% and 4.3% since March, with 7.1 million people unemployed in September. The labor force participation rate was 61.8%, while the employment-population ratio was 59.2%.
Health care led job gains with an increase of 17,000, followed by construction at 11,000 and manufacturing at 9,000. Financial activities lost 7,000 jobs and had declined by 129,000 since May 2025.
Wage growth remained steady, with average hourly earnings rising to $37.81, up 3% from a year earlier, while the average workweek held at 34.4 hours.
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In a comment, Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum Bank, said the weak employment reading strengthens the case for no October rate hike.
“Weak print strengthens the no October hike scenario, but weak is not automatically bullish: soft-but-orderly supports the liquidity trade, a growth scare pulls risk assets, Bitcoin potentially included. Liquidity stays the driver either way,” he stated.
The latest employment data follow a softer-than-expected August inflation reading, with US PCE inflation coming in at 3.4% year-over-year versus the 3.7% forecast. Core PCE rose 3%, below expectations of 3.3%, providing an earlier sign of easing price pressures ahead of the September jobs report.
Markets now see a strong likelihood that the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.75% to 4% at its Oct. 28 meeting. The probability of a hold has risen to approximately 82%, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, up sharply from about 36% one week earlier.
Expectations for a quarter-point rate increase have moved in the opposite direction, with the odds of a hike falling to about 18% from 64% a week ago and 24% a day earlier.