JPMorgan traders turn cautious on US stocks after Warsh speech
The bank’s desk cited rate uncertainty, September seasonality and pressure on AI shares ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 16 decision.
JPMorgan Chase traders shifted to a tactically cautious view on US stocks after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks lifted expectations for interest-rate increases this year, Bloomberg reported.
The desk, led by US market intelligence chief Andrew Tyler, dropped its bullish stance ahead of the Fed’s Sept. 16 policy decision. Tyler said market fundamentals remain strong but near-term variables could keep equities moving sideways.
The US 10-year yield topped 4.75% on Monday, its highest level since January 2025, as higher oil prices strengthened expectations for a rate increase. Swaps implied an almost 70% chance of a quarter-point hike next month.
Tyler cited rate uncertainty, seasonal weakness and a potential unwind in high-flying artificial-intelligence stocks as near-term risks. He said equity positioning remains broadly neutral.
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The S&P 500 was down 0.5% around midday in New York, although it remained on track for its strongest August since 2021. Tyler said the monthly jobs report and Sept. 11 consumer-price data will be important for the Fed’s decision.
Tyler said a recession was highly unlikely over the next few quarters, but Warsh’s comments made the Sept. 16 meeting a live policy decision.