McKinsey says AI will create more US jobs than it cuts, but 11 million workers may need new careers
The McKinsey Global Institute expects a net gain in jobs by 2035, but moving displaced workers into new occupations is the hard part
The robots are coming for some jobs. According to a new forecast, they are also bringing a few extra ones with them.
AI and automation could cut demand for about 36 million US jobs by 2035, while growth in other parts of the economy creates about 41 million, according to a report from the McKinsey Global Institute. The trouble is that the people losing work and the jobs being created may not line up neatly.
The math works. The logistics are another story.
The report, released on September 29, 2026, puts the scale of the disruption in context. The 36 million jobs facing lower demand account for nearly 21% of existing work hours in the US.
On the other side of the ledger, McKinsey projects 40 to 41 million new positions. The firm attributes most of that growth to broader economic expansion and activity across the AI value chain.
Not everyone affected will need to start over. Of the 36 million jobs facing reduced demand, about 25 million workers are likely to stay in related occupations, though with different day-to-day duties.
About 11 million workers, or around 6.5 to 7% of the labor force, may need to move into entirely new occupations because tweaking their current roles will not be enough. McKinsey also gives a range for that figure: somewhere between 6 million and 16 million workers.
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A pace the US labor market has never sustained
To absorb the required career changes, McKinsey estimates the US would need approximately 770,000 occupational transitions per year. The historical average is 215,000. That means workforce mobility would have to run at about 3.6 times its usual annual rate.
McKinsey frames the challenge as one of skills alignment rather than a shortage of jobs. The report describes the shift as potentially the largest and most sustained workforce transformation in US history.
Who is exposed and who is hiring
The report finds that lower-wage workers and people without college degrees are the most vulnerable to displacement. The sectors flagged as most affected include office administration, retail, sales, and transportation.
On the growth side, McKinsey expects the strongest job gains in healthcare, professional and technical services, and construction.
The projections also factor in demographic pressure. McKinsey points to an aging population and lower immigration rates as forces shaping labor supply alongside technological change.
What this means for employers, investors, and policymakers
The range in McKinsey’s own estimate is worth keeping in mind. A world where 6 million people need new careers looks very different from one where 16 million do, both for public budgets and for private training businesses.
The metric to watch is the annual rate of occupational switching. If it starts climbing from the historical 215,000 toward the 770,000 McKinsey says is needed, the transition is working. If it stays flat while automation spreads, the net job gain on paper may not feel like a gain for the workers left behind.