ON Semiconductor expects 12% to 14% revenue CAGR through 2030

ON Semiconductor just told Wall Street it plans to grow faster than it previously promised. At its Investor/Analyst Day on September 16, 2026, the company raised its long-term revenue growth target to a 12%-14% compound annual rate through 2030.

The old range was 10%-12%.

The new numbers

Under the revised model, onsemi (NASDAQ: ON) is aiming for approximately $11 billion in total revenue by 2030.

The headline act is the company’s AI data center business. Onsemi projects that segment’s revenue will exceed $500 million in 2026 and surpass $2.5 billion by 2030.

That works out to a CAGR of over 50%. The company says that pace would substantially outrun growth in the broader AI data center market.

Onsemi forecasts that semiconductor content per AI rack will climb from about $15,000 today to more than $115,000 by 2030, driven by the industry’s shift toward higher-voltage architectures.

Not just an AI story

Onsemi expects its automotive segment to grow at approximately 9% annually and industrial at approximately 10%.

Onsemi also targets a total addressable market, or TAM, of $213 billion for its core power business by 2030. That figure could expand further with the company’s ongoing Synaptics acquisition, according to onsemi.

The Nvidia connection

Part of the bullish case rests on onsemi’s relationship with Nvidia. The company participates in Nvidia’s MGX ecosystem, where it landed a major Vcore socket design win expected to generate revenue by late 2026.

CEO Hassane El-Khoury said there are no signs of an AI slowdown, pointing to data center project visibility through 2027.

Wall Street is split

J.P. Morgan pointed to potential earnings per share of $10-$11 by 2030 and maintained a Buy rating.

Stifel took a cooler view. The firm saw the targets as modest and adjusted its price target downward.

Following the event, onsemi shares showed initial positive momentum amid a generally strong environment for tech stocks.