OpenAI revenue claim puts a $20 billion question mark on AI’s growth story

A post circulating on X claims that OpenAI’s annualized revenues are $20 billion less than previously reported.

It also lands at an awkward moment, with OpenAI reportedly pursuing a fundraising round that could value it at over $800 billion.

The numbers on the record

In a blog post from mid-January 2026, CFO Sarah Friar said the company’s annualized recurring revenue topped $20 billion by the end of 2025.

That compared with $6 billion in 2024 and $2 billion in 2023.

Friar tied that growth to a huge buildout of computing power. OpenAI’s capacity rose to 1.9 gigawatts in 2025, up from 0.6 gigawatts the year before, nearly a threefold jump.

The Information reported that OpenAI’s run rate had passed $25 billion by around February or March 2026.

Bloomberg then reported that OpenAI’s ARR was above $40 billion by August 2026. The most aggressive estimate in circulation, not tied to a named outlet, put the figure near $70 billion by late September 2026.

That same estimate pointed to more than 70% growth in the third quarter. It also cited a doubling of enterprise sales since July and the rollout of advertising inside ChatGPT as a new income stream.

Why run-rate math is slippery

The basic idea is to take current recurring revenue and project it across a full year. That makes ARR great for showing momentum. It also means the figure can swing a lot depending on which month is used, what counts as recurring, and who is doing the counting.

OpenAI is a private company, so there is no quarterly earnings report to settle the matter. Much of what the public knows comes from company blog posts and press reports, each measured at a different point in time.

The X post does not specify which earlier figure it is measuring against. That matters, because the reported numbers range from $20 billion to nearly $70 billion depending on the date and the source.

What this means for OpenAI and its backers

A reported target of over $800 billion is built on the assumption that revenue keeps compounding at a breakneck pace.

High infrastructure spending suggests OpenAI’s annual cash burn could run into the tens of billions as it keeps expanding compute.

Microsoft, OpenAI’s major partner, has an obvious interest in how this shakes out.

Competition adds pressure too. Anthropic, a key rival in enterprise AI, has also reported accelerating growth in its own ARR.

OpenAI’s push into enterprise sales and ChatGPT advertising shows it is trying to widen its revenue base beyond consumer subscriptions.

For now, the clearest anchor remains the company’s own statement: more than $20 billion in ARR at the end of 2025, alongside 1.9 gigawatts of compute.