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✓ 33h Iran rejects nuclear limits, seeks sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
✓ 33h Iran rejects nuclear limits, seeks sanctions relief and Strait of Hormuz reopening
▼ Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2% (was 4%, ▼2¢ in 3h)
NO ▲2¢
Iran uranium enrichment agreement
2 articles
· 3h ago
2%
▼2¢
✓ 33h 3h US envoys’ canceled visit to Islamabad casts doubt on Iran peace talks
NO ▲2¢
Strait of hormuz traffic normalization
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼2¢
3h 4M barrels bypass US blockade at Strait of Hormuz
YES ▲1¢
Fed chair confirmation predictions
2 articles
Developing
2%
▲1¢
⚡ Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation 1% FLAT
✓ 21h Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair, removing key obstacle ahead of committee vote
✓ 23h Senator Tillis backs Warsh for Fed Chair as DOJ ends Powell probe
NO ▲1¢
Crude oil predictions for june
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼1¢
2h Iran warns of retaliation, raising crude oil supply disruption concerns
YES ▲1¢
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▲1¢
4h UK plans to reopen Strait of Hormuz, deploy ships and drones for security
Likely NO
WTI crude oil predictions for april 2026
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
14m Iran exports 4.6M barrels of oil, bypassing US sanctions efforts
✓ 23h Iran moves 4M barrels of oil past US blockade, stabilizing supply outlook
Likely NO
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 4% FLAT
16m Russia open to US talks on Ukraine settlement, no new concessions
Likely NO
Bank of japan decision in april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
22m Iran accuses US of ceasefire breach amid Middle East tensions
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap in april 2026
1 article
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by june 92% FLAT
24m Hedge funds exit US tech stocks, raising questions on Nvidia’s market cap lead
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
3 articles
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 5% FLAT
28m Iran appoints hardliner Jalili as lead negotiator in US talks
✓ 21h Iran cites energy leverage as US-Iran peace deal odds drop
3h Wendy Sherman calls US-Iran situation “harder, riskier, strategically misjudged”
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for 2026
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin all time high by date 3% FLAT
34m Institutional control of Bitcoin supply rises from 8% in 2024
Likely NO
What price will Bitcoin hit in april
1 article
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
38m Bitcoin nears $79K liquidity zone, $1.5B short squeeze potential at $81K
Likely NO
Next to leave Trump cabinet
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 245m Armed suspect stopped at White House Correspondents’ Dinner targeting Trump officials
Likely NO
Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran
2 articles
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Fall of the Iranian regime 4% FLAT
50m Trump claims division in Iran’s leadership, markets await decisive action
3h Iran FM returns to Islamabad for further talks amid US envoy trip cancellation
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
1h Israeli airstrikes hit evacuation route in south Lebanon amid military escalation
3h Israeli attacks kill over 2,500 in Lebanon since March 2026
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire 100% FLAT
⚡ Israel-lebanon diplomatic meeting 100% FLAT
1h Israel orders evacuations in Lebanon, military activity surges
✓ 33h Hezbollah and Israel escalate attacks, accuse each other of ceasefire violations
Likely NO
Next prime minister of Israel
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu's departure 6% FLAT
⚡ Netanyahu leaving office 6% FLAT
✓ 31h Former Israeli premiers form new party to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
✓ 24h Lapid and Bennett form alliance to challenge Netanyahu in 2026 elections
Likely NO
Next CEO of apple
3 articles
Developing
99.8%
▼0¢
1h Apple confirms John Ternus as new CEO, succeeding Tim Cook
2h Apple names John Ternus as CEO, foldable iPhone set for September
✓ 33h Tim Cook reportedly passing foldable iPhone project to John Ternus
Likely NO
Iran leadership change
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
1h IRGC Quds Force chief vows support for Hezbollah amid Israel ceasefire
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
1h Trump warns Middle East conflict could destabilize markets
2h Iran conflict disrupts oil supply, Strait of Hormuz closure impacts markets
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 92% FLAT
✓ 21h Nvidia’s market cap dominance odds steady despite US-Iran tensions, tariffs
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 3% FLAT
1h Trump’s demand for US control of Iran’s nuclear material stalls deal prospects
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
2h Trump hints at Iran peace talks, June 30 deal market splits YES
Likely NO
Bitcoin price hit in april
1 article
· 2h ago
96%
▼0¢
2h Iran conflict pressures central banks, traders reassess Bitcoin outlook
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
2 articles
· 2h ago
9%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 14% FLAT
2h Iran proposes framework to end war, awaits US and Israeli response
4h Iran internet blackout costs $31M daily, pressures regime
Likely NO
Federal funds rate predictions for end of 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
2%
▼0¢
3h Kevin Warsh’s potential Fed Chair role stirs rate hike speculation
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 3h ago
100%
▼0¢
✓ 33h EgyptAir resumes flights amid easing Gulf tensions, potential de-escalation
Likely NO
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 3h ago
10%
▼0¢
⚡ Diplomatic meetings with Iran 1% FLAT
3h US-Iran talks stall, Israel-Iran peace deal unlikely by April 30
Likely NO
Countries conducting military action against Iran
1 article
· 3h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran military action against countries 100% FLAT
3h Israel deploys Iron Dome to UAE amid Iran strikes
Likely NO
WTI crude oil price in april 2026
1 article
· 3h ago
15%
▼0¢
⚡ Crude oil all time high by april 30 1% FLAT
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 15% FLAT
3h Karex warns of 30% price hikes due to Iran war supply chain issues
Likely NO
Bitcoin price on april 24
1 article
· 4h ago
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
4h Bitcoin trades 30% below $126K ATH amid consecutive bear markets
Likely NO
Strait of hormuz traffic returns to normal
1 article
· 4h ago
2%
▼0¢
4h US naval blockade of Iranian ports continues, impacting Strait of Hormuz traffic
Likely NO
US withdrawal from NATO
1 article
· 4h ago
4%
▼0¢
4h Trump calls for Spain’s NATO suspension over Iran war stance
Likely NO
GPT-5.5 release dates
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ GPT-5.5 release timing 100% FLAT
4h OpenAI’s GPT-5.5 set for June release, market shows 100% certainty
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting
1 article
· 4h ago
3%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30 3% FLAT
4h Oman hosts Iran’s foreign minister amid US-Iran nuclear deal uncertainty
Likely NO
S&P 500 movement on april 24
1 article
· 4h ago
93%
▼0¢
4h Nvidia eyes top market cap spot amid tech earnings, Powell’s final FOMC
Likely NO
Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
· 4h ago
100%
▼0¢
⚡ Israel suspension of lebanon offensive 100% FLAT
4h Israeli soldier killed in Lebanon, ceasefire market remains static