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2h Iran blockade strands 20,000 seafarers, 2,000 ships in Strait of Hormuz
Prediction Markets
News mapped to markets. Live odds updated every 10 minutes.
2h Iran blockade strands 20,000 seafarers, 2,000 ships in Strait of Hormuz
▲ Countries sending warships through hormuz
21% (was 18%, ▲3¢ in 2h)
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic: 18% FLAT
YES ▲3¢
Countries sending warships through hormuz
1 article
· 2h ago
21%
▲3¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 18% FLAT
2h 
YES ▲3¢
Strait of hormuz traffic
1 article
· 2h ago
21%
▲3¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 58% FLAT
✓ 32h Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz, complicating US naval operations
YES ▲2¢
Warships through the strait of hormuz
1 article
Developing
21%
▲2¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 18% FLAT
⚡ Countries sending warships through hormuz 1% FLAT
✓ 21h US urges UN for maritime coalition to secure Strait of Hormuz navigation
NO ▲2¢
Israel-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
· 2h ago
15%
▼2¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 17% FLAT
2h Iran proposes three-phase peace plan amid US blockade of Strait of Hormuz
NO ▲1¢
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027
1 article
Developing
4%
▼1¢
⚡ Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by 2026 5% FLAT
17m Ukraine disrupts Russian-linked network planning EU attacks
NO ▲1¢
FDV predictions one day after launch
1 article
Developing
83%
▼1¢
1h Trump calls for Kimmel firing amid April 2026 insult prediction certainty
YES ▲1¢
Trump's hormuz blockade announcement
1 article
Developing
59%
▲1¢
⚡ US blockade of hormuz 58% FLAT
1h Iran defies US blockade, claims oil exports unstoppable despite full storage
NO ▲1¢
Karoline leavitt's press briefing statements
2 articles
Developing
83%
▼1¢
✓ 81h White House confirms third major assassination attempt against Trump
✓ 51h White House discusses Iran proposal, no US acceptance confirmation
NO ▲1¢
Largest company by market cap in june
1 article
· 2h ago
92%
▼1¢
⚡ Largest company predictions for june 92% FLAT
⚡ Second largest company prediction 0% FLAT
✓ 42h Nvidia stock hits new all-time high amid market cap speculation
Likely NO
US-Iran ceasefire end
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 1% FLAT
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 58% FLAT
3m Iran prioritizes Strait of Hormuz reopening over nuclear talks
Likely NO
Ethereum price on april 25
1 article
Developing
3%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price on april 24 100% FLAT
5m BitMine acquires 101,000 ETH amid $6.5B in unrealized losses
Likely NO
Diplomatic meetings with Iran
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's hormuz blockade announcement 58% FLAT
5m Iran turns to Russia as US-Iran talks stall, meeting with Putin
Likely NO
Trump insult prediction market
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
✓ 37m Trump calls for Kimmel’s firing, prediction markets see insult as certain
Likely NO
Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire
2 articles
Developing
12%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran control and regime fall 0% FLAT
12m Israel’s top general warns of potential multi-front conflict by 2026
24m Israel warns Hezbollah amid ongoing ceasefire market stalemate
Likely NO
Crude oil all time high by april 30
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
⚡ WTI crude oil prices in april 2026 0% FLAT
13m California oil reserves dwindle, fueling West Coast price pressure
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions in april
4 articles
Developing
5%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price predictions for 2026 5% FLAT
14m Rep. Begich revives bitcoin reserve bill to codify Trump order
26m US declared ‘crypto capital of the world’ by CFTC chair Mike Selig
1h Bitcoin dips below $77K amid US-Iran tensions, market cap down 1.8%
Likely NO
Starmer out timing predictions
1 article
Developing
69%
▼0¢
⚡ Starmer out prediction markets 39% FLAT
16m Speaker Hoyle’s Commons vote move adds pressure on UK PM Starmer
Likely NO
Best Chinese AI company by april 2026
1 article
Developing
83%
▼0¢
21m China asserts independence in AI race, eyes 15% market jump by April 2026
Likely NO
XRP price april 13-19
1 article
Developing
100%
▼0¢
27m Senator Lummis sets May markup for CLARITY Act at Bitcoin 2026
Likely NO
Ships transit the strait of hormuz by april
1 article
Developing
21%
▼0¢
⚡ Strait of hormuz traffic 20% FLAT
30m Iran to charge ships in rial at Strait of Hormuz, complicating transit
Likely NO
Bitcoin price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
0%
▼0¢
⚡ Bitcoin price hit in april 0% FLAT
54m FBI director’s pro-Bitcoin remarks at Bitcoin 2026 signal supportive policy
Likely NO
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump endorsement of Israeli ceasefire 100% FLAT
56m Israeli airstrikes hit eastern Lebanon, complicating ceasefire with Hezbollah
Likely NO
China invasion of taiwan
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
1h US Marine Corps F-35B launches from USS Tripoli amid Iran tensions
Likely NO
Solana price predictions for april 2026
1 article
Developing
93%
▼0¢
1h $70M in assets bridged to Solana in past week amid low prediction market odds
Likely NO
Largest company by june
1 article
Developing
92%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company by market cap in june 92% FLAT
⚡ Largest company predictions for june 92% FLAT
✓ 21h Nvidia stock hits record high, semiconductor sector sees 19th session of gains
Likely NO
Netanyahu out of power
1 article
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Netanyahu out 6% FLAT
1h Israel’s attorney-general challenges justice minister’s judicial plan
Likely NO
Ethereum price prediction for 2026
1 article
Developing
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Ethereum price in 2026 4% FLAT
1h Ethereum price prediction market shows no change despite ETF inflows
Likely NO
Iran military action by april 30
2 articles
Developing
6%
▼0¢
⚡ Reza pahlavi's entry into Iran 6% FLAT
1h Iran shifts focus to internal threats amid protest fears, military strike unlikely
2h Iran missile, drone strikes on Gulf states continue, US Ambassador warns
Likely NO
Iranian regime fall
1 article
Developing
8%
▼0¢
1h Iran seeks Russian air defense systems to bolster regime stability
Likely NO
Largest company by market cap
2 articles
Developing
92%
▼0¢
⚡ Largest company predictions for june 92% FLAT
1h Nvidia becomes world’s most valuable company with $5.2T market cap
2h Netanyahu orders strikes in southern Lebanon, ceasefire odds recalibrate
Likely NO
Iran successfully targets ships by april 30
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US escorts through hormuz 2% FLAT
1h Iranian tankers redirected as US blockade tightens in Strait of Hormuz
Likely NO
US-Iran permanent peace deal
1 article
Developing
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april 4% FLAT
✓ 21h German Chancellor calls Trump “humiliated” by Iran amid ongoing conflict
Likely NO
Kevin warsh Fed chair confirmation
1 article
Developing
92%
▼0¢
✓ 31h DOJ drops Powell probe, clearing path for Warsh’s Fed chair confirmation by May 15
Likely NO
Richest person on december 31, 2026
1 article
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Larry Ellison’s $40B Warner Bros. guarantee raises financial leverage doubts
Likely NO
Crude oil price predictions for june 2023
2 articles
Developing
1%
▼0¢
1h Brent crude hits three-week high as US-Iran talks stall
2h Hormuz traffic restricted as only 8 vessels cross on April 26
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting attendance
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations 17% FLAT
⚡ Iranian demands Trump agreement 4% FLAT
2h Trump blocks Iraq cash payments, pressures Iran-backed militias
Likely NO
Ethereum price in april
1 article
· 2h ago
100%
▼0¢
2h 48,600 ETH worth $110.7M staked in Beacon Depositor from unknown wallets
Likely NO
US-Iran diplomatic meeting locations
2 articles
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran peace deal 2% FLAT
2h Iran strengthens Russia ties, complicating US peace talks
2h Iran claims US seeks talks after failing in 2026 Iran war
Likely NO
Iran leadership status
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ US-Iran permanent peace deal 2% FLAT
✓ 22h Iran tightens Strait of Hormuz control, dimming US peace deal prospects
Likely NO
US-Iran nuclear deal by april 30
1 article
· 2h ago
2%
▼0¢
⚡ Iran uranium enrichment agreement 1% FLAT
2h Bahrain-led coalition of 80 nations condemns Iran’s regional actions
Likely NO
Iran coup attempt
1 article
· 2h ago
4%
▼0¢
⚡ Trump's agreement to Iranian demands in april 4% FLAT
2h Iran imposes shipping tolls in Strait of Hormuz, US silent at UN