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Sberbank projects Russia’s regulated crypto trading volume to hit $46B in first year
Russia's largest bank forecasts that roughly 20% of the country's crypto activity will migrate to licensed platforms when new rules take effect September 1
Russia is about to flip the switch on legal crypto trading, and its biggest bank thinks the opening act will be worth roughly $46 billion. Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov said he expects regulated exchanges to handle 3.5 to 4 trillion rubles in their first 12 months of operation, a figure that sounds massive until you realize it only represents about a fifth of Russia’s estimated total annual crypto volume.
The remaining 80%, or roughly 14 trillion rubles, will presumably keep flowing through the peer-to-peer channels and offshore platforms that Russian traders have relied on for years.
What the new framework actually looks like
The regulations go live on September 1, 2026. From that date, Russians can legally buy and trade crypto, but only through licensed brokers, exchanges, asset managers, and depositories.
The asset menu is deliberately narrow at launch. Only Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT will be available on regulated platforms initially.
Non-qualified investors face an annual purchase cap of 300,000 rubles, which works out to roughly $3,800. Qualified investors get a significantly higher ceiling of 3 million rubles.
One thing the law explicitly does not do: allow people to buy coffee with Bitcoin. Cryptocurrencies remain banned as a payment method for goods and services inside Russia.
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Sberbank’s own crypto ambitions
Sberbank is building its own infrastructure to capture a share of this new market. The bank plans to launch a digital depository and wallet service by December 2026, positioning itself to serve as a custodian for crypto assets held within the regulated framework.
Sberbank is also exploring crypto-backed lending, where borrowers could pledge Bitcoin, Ethereum, or USDT as collateral for loans.
Professional market participants, including exchanges and brokers, are required to obtain licensing by July 1, 2027.
The growth trajectory
Popov’s team projects regulated trading volume could climb to 7.5 trillion rubles, approximately $87 billion, by 2029. Russia’s total estimated annual crypto trading volume currently sits at around 18 trillion rubles.
The purchase caps on retail investors could become a defining feature of how this market develops. With non-qualified investors limited to $3,800 per year, the regulated segment is likely to skew heavily toward institutional and high-net-worth participants, at least initially.