S&P 500 earnings growth expected at 27%, with Micron and Nvidia doing the heavy lifting

The S&P 500 is heading into third-quarter earnings season with a headline growth number most companies would envy. Consensus estimates point to 27% year-over-year growth in earnings per share, according to a Goldman Sachs report from early October 2026.

Look closer, though, and the party has a short guest list. Micron and Nvidia alone are projected to supply more than one-third of that growth.

A big number with a narrow base

The 27% figure marks a slowdown from last quarter. Goldman’s report puts second-quarter EPS growth at 33% once distortions are adjusted out.

The engine behind it all is artificial intelligence. Spending on AI infrastructure is anticipated to drive more than half of the index’s overall earnings increase.

The sector math is even more lopsided. Information technology and energy together are expected to contribute nearly 80% of total EPS growth for the quarter.

The top 10 contributors are projected to generate roughly 68% of the index’s earnings growth.

Micron and Nvidia take center stage

Micron Technology has already shown what a memory boom looks like on an income statement. The company reported EPS growth of 1,003% year-over-year for its fiscal third quarter ending in August, well ahead of what analysts had expected.

Nvidia is expected to post EPS growth of around 90% year-over-year in its upcoming report.

FactSet estimates suggest a blended EPS growth range of 28.5% to 29.5% for the quarter, and it notes that upward revisions during this stretch of the calendar are uncommon.

The breadth question

This earnings season marks the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the S&P 500.

Fourteen of 16 Zacks sectors are expected to report positive EPS growth this quarter.

Still, there is a gap between the headline number and the experience of the typical company in the index. The median S&P 500 constituent is not growing anywhere near 27%, with the index average being pulled upward by a few outsized results.

What this means for investors

For anyone holding an S&P 500 index fund, a meaningful slice of the index’s earnings momentum now depends on AI-related capital spending continuing at its current clip.

Nvidia’s upcoming report will be the marquee event. With expectations set around 90% EPS growth, the bar is high, and the gap between meeting and missing that number could ripple across the broader index given how much of the growth story it represents.

Guidance will matter as much as backward-looking results. Investors will want to know whether AI infrastructure spending is set to keep accelerating, or whether the slowdown from 33% to 27% is an early hint of a cooling trend.