Wall Street hit the pause button on July 29 as two of the market’s biggest catalysts lined up back to back: a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and earnings from the two largest companies on the planet.

Stocks traded in a narrow range as the two-day FOMC meeting wrapped up, with the rate announcement and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference scheduled for 2:00 p.m. and 2:30 p.m. ET respectively. The consensus expectation is that the Fed will hold the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, the same level set after the previous meeting in mid-June, which was widely characterized as hawkish.

The Fed’s holding pattern and what Warsh might signal

The June 16-17 FOMC meeting left markets with a distinctly hawkish taste. Traders will be parsing every syllable for clues about whether the committee’s stance has softened, or whether inflation concerns continue to keep rate cuts on the shelf.

Microsoft and Apple: the earnings main event

Microsoft is set to report after the close on July 29, with Wall Street expecting earnings per share of $4.21. Apple follows with its conference call on July 30 at 5:00 p.m. ET.

Both reports arrive at a moment of heightened scrutiny over AI spending. Alphabet, Google’s parent company, already reported earlier in the earnings cycle, and the market has been fixated on how much these tech giants are pouring into artificial intelligence infrastructure versus how much revenue they’re actually generating from it.

Microsoft is the clearest proxy for enterprise AI adoption, given its deep integration of AI tools across Azure and its Office suite. The $4.21 EPS estimate bakes in substantial expectations for cloud growth.

Bitcoin and crypto: watching from the sidelines, but not quietly

While equities sat still, Bitcoin was creeping toward a two-week high near $65,500. The move was supported by over $600 million in inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs over five consecutive trading days.

Historical patterns show that Bitcoin and other risk assets tend to see increased volatility around FOMC announcements. Sharp moves in either direction within hours of Warsh’s press conference would be entirely consistent with precedent.