Trump tells Lebanon president ceasefire imminent, markets react sharply

Trump reportedly informed Lebanon’s president that a ceasefire is imminent. The market for an Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30 is now at 83.2% YES, up from 41% yesterday.

The report drove a sharp move in the April 30 market, which spiked 13 points at 1:16 PM, jumping from 59% to 72%. The June 30 market also climbed to 89.9% YES, up from 67% a week ago. Traders appear to be pricing in a formal announcement soon, given Trump’s direct communication with Lebanon’s president.

The April 30 sub-market trades $632,845/day in actual USDC. Order book depth is $3,790 to move 5 points. The largest price move was the 13-point spike following the report, consistent with traders positioning for an imminent announcement.

The reported call is a strong signal, but not a done deal. A YES share for April 30 is priced at 83.2¢, paying $1 if resolved, a potential 1.27x return. Confirmation from Netanyahu or an official ceasefire communique would be needed to push odds higher from here.

Watch for official statements from the IDF or joint communiques between Israel and Lebanon. Any confirmation or denial from Netanyahu will likely move the market sharply.

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