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Trump stated that the downing of a US jet won’t disrupt negotiations with Iran. The market for a US-Iran ceasefire by April 7 is at 1% YES, down from 2% yesterday and 12% a week ago.
Trump’s focus on diplomacy over military action slightly increased long-term ceasefire odds, but the immediate effect was limited. The April 15 market is at 6% YES, while April 30 sits at 18% YES. The most significant change was in the May 31 market, dropping to 36% YES from 46% in 24 hours, indicating traders are cautious about immediate progress.
USDC traded in the ceasefire markets was $431,402 over the last 24 hours, with $12,352 needed to move the April 7 market price by 5 percentage points. This liquidity suggests varied opinions but remains susceptible to large trades. The largest recent move was a 2-point rise for April 30, likely due to speculation that Trump’s statement might lead to renewed talks.
Trump’s approach suggests a cautious escalation strategy, potentially stabilizing longer-term ceasefire odds if diplomacy continues. At 18¢, a YES share for April 30 pays $1 if resolved, offering a 5.5x return. For that to happen, significant diplomatic progress is needed within 27 days. Watch for efforts by Oman or Qatar as intermediaries, which could shift the odds.
Monitor CENTCOM updates or unexpected military actions. Increased diplomatic activity could change market dynamics, especially if Trump’s administration announces new talks or appoints an envoy.
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