US expands naval blockade on Iran, reducing odds of near-term lifting

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the global expansion of the US naval blockade on Iran. The market for the blockade lifting by May 31 sits at 62.5%, down from 72% just 24 hours ago.

The expansion makes a near-term lifting less likely. The Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 18.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday. Both markets moved in the same direction after the announcement.

Daily trading volume hit $95,253 in actual USDC for the blockade market. The largest move was a 5-point spike at 3:50 PM, from 57% to 62%, suggesting traders reacted directly to Hegseth’s statement. The Strait of Hormuz traffic market saw $36,459 in actual USDC, with a 2-point spike at 3:48 PM.

The expansion fits with recent military operations and looks more like a strategic shift than a temporary measure. YES shares at 62.5¢ pay $1 if lifted by May 31, a scenario that has gotten harder to imagine given the current posture.

Watch for Trump’s communications. Any suggestion of a diplomatic breakthrough could swing the odds, but Pentagon or CENTCOM updates will confirm whether operational plans are actually changing.

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