Iran keeps Strait of Hormuz closed, disrupting US diplomatic efforts

Iran’s decision to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed has disrupted diplomatic efforts, and the likelihood of Donald Trump announcing the lifting of the US blockade by May 31 dropped to 78%, down from 90% just a day ago.

Market reaction

The market for Trump’s Hormuz blockade announcement by May 31 fell 12 points. The April 19 sub-market is worse: odds collapsed to 8% from 41% in 24 hours. Both moves show traders pricing in stalled talks and rising tensions.

The US-Iran ceasefire market moved the other direction. Odds for an April 21 ceasefire end announcement rose to 19%, up from 6% yesterday, as traders grow more skeptical that the ceasefire holds amid military posturing and escalating rhetoric.

Actual USDC traded across these markets totaled $29,602 over the last 24 hours. The largest price move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 Hormuz blockade market. Only $1,419 is needed to move the May 31 odds by 5 points, which means the market has thinner liquidity than the headline odds suggest.

Why it matters

Iran keeping Hormuz closed complicates any diplomatic resolution. The Trump administration’s hardline stance and Iran’s defiance point toward a prolonged stalemate. A YES share on the May 31 Hormuz blockade market at 78¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 1.28x return. Betting on a swift resolution carries real risk without clear diplomatic progress.

What to watch

Statements from President Trump or the Iranian military could move these markets sharply in either direction. Troop movements or naval maneuvers near the strait would likely push odds further.

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