US job market steady, Fed rate cut odds shift amid strong hiring

The U.S. job market averaged 54,750 new jobs per week while jobless claims held steady, pushing the Polymarket odds for a Fed Cut-Pause-Pause scenario by June down to 38% YES from 40% a week ago.

The Fed Rate Cuts in 2026 market prices a 38% chance of no rate cuts this year, up from 34% yesterday. That move signals traders increasingly expect rates to stay where they are. The Fed Decisions from March to June market shows a similar shift, with bets moving against a cut-pause-pause outcome.

Market reaction

Volume in the Fed rate cuts market hit $23,425 in USDC over the last 24 hours. It costs $10,941 to move the price five percentage points, which points to moderate liquidity. The largest single movement was a one-point spike, meaning the market is active but still sensitive to bigger trades.

Why it matters

Strong hiring numbers reduce the case for rate cuts. At 38¢, a YES bet on no Fed rate cuts pays 2.63x if the Fed holds current rates through all of 2026. That bet requires confidence that job growth and economic conditions stay strong enough to keep the Fed on hold.

What to watch

Upcoming CPI reports and any statements from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Sustained inflation readings or continued job growth at this pace would likely push the “no cuts” probability higher.

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