US official warns military operations with Iran may resume without progress

A US official told Axios that military operations could restart if no negotiation progress is made. Ceasefire by April 30 is at 37.5% YES, down from 59% yesterday.

The April 30 market dropped 21.5 points in 24 hours. Additional US troop deployments and Treasury Secretary Bessent’s economic threats against Iran drove the sell-off. Traders are pricing in a higher likelihood of resumed conflict as the ceasefire deadline approaches.

Daily volume is $80,435 in USDC. The order book is thin: it costs only $1,566 to move the price 5 points, meaning single large trades can swing the market. The largest recent move was a 4-point drop at 5:27 PM.

With Trump’s ultimatum and military reinforcements in place, diplomatic resolution looks unlikely without a dramatic shift. A YES share at 38¢ pays 2.63x if hostilities cease by April 30. That bet requires believing a breakthrough happens within the next 12 days.

Watch for moves from Secretary of State Rubio or Secretary of Defense Hegseth, and any developments from intermediaries like Oman or Qatar. These are the most likely catalysts before the deadline.