Macro

Odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 rise to 13.5% amid US-Israeli air campaign

The increased odds highlight geopolitical tensions and market skepticism, underscoring the complexity of predicting regime stability.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflow as Ethereum leads with $71.1M on April 4: FT

Investor caution amid geopolitical tensions suggests a shift in capital allocation, impacting market sentiment and Bitcoin's price outlook.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Bitcoin ETFs see $8.9M inflows amid cautious market sentiment: FT

Geopolitical tensions and regulatory uncertainties may hinder Bitcoin's growth, requiring significant catalysts for substantial price increases.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

EU tariffs on US goods by September 30 loom as Trump escalates trade tensions

Rising EU-US trade tensions could disrupt global markets, impacting economic stability and international trade relations significantly.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

Market odds for Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% as skepticism grows: FT

Apr. 4, 2026

Market odds for Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% as skepticism grows: FT

Skepticism about Iranian regime change highlights the regime's resilience and the complexities of geopolitical shifts in volatile regions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% from 20% a week ago

Apr. 4, 2026

Odds of Iranian regime change by June 30 drop to 13.5% from 20% a week ago

The entrenched power structures in Iran suggest a stable regime, complicating external efforts for change and impacting market confidence.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Explosions in Tehran raise odds of regime change to 14% by June 30

Apr. 4, 2026

Explosions in Tehran raise odds of regime change to 14% by June 30

Increased tensions in Tehran highlight potential for significant geopolitical shifts, impacting regional stability and global market dynamics.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Explosions in Tehran boost odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14% YES

Apr. 4, 2026

Explosions in Tehran boost odds of Iranian regime falling by June 30 to 14% YES

The explosions highlight escalating tensions that could destabilize Iran, but market skepticism suggests limited belief in imminent regime change.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

Apr. 3, 2026

Trump continues talks despite Iran downing two US jets; ceasefire odds drop to 1.1%

Market skepticism highlights the fragile state of US-Iran relations, with diplomatic efforts struggling to gain traction amid rising tensions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid tensions

Apr. 3, 2026

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 surge to 86.5% amid tensions

Rising odds of US military action in Iran could destabilize regional geopolitics, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations significantly.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Market predicts 86% chance of US forces entering Iran by April 30

Apr. 3, 2026

Market predicts 86% chance of US forces entering Iran by April 30

The heightened market prediction reflects increased geopolitical tensions, potentially leading to significant military and economic repercussions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran rejects US demands, ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% by April 7

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran rejects US demands, ceasefire odds drop to 1.1% by April 7

Iran's rejection of US demands exacerbates market volatility and dims prospects for diplomatic resolution, impacting geopolitical stability.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran’s refusal to meet US officials drops ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran’s refusal to meet US officials drops ceasefire odds to 1% by April 7

Iran's stance heightens regional tensions, complicating diplomatic efforts and increasing the likelihood of military confrontations.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

Apr. 3, 2026

US military activity in Iran drives prediction market surge for troop presence

The surge in prediction markets signals heightened geopolitical tensions and potential for prolonged US military engagement in the region.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ