Macro

Iran downs two US warplanes, reducing April 7 ceasefire odds to 1%

The incident underscores heightened tensions, diminishing diplomatic resolution prospects and impacting market confidence in ceasefire outcomes.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

US-Iran ceasefire markets show sharp declines amid rising nuclear threat

The declining ceasefire odds highlight escalating tensions, potentially destabilizing the region and impacting global diplomatic efforts.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

GBP/USD drops as strong US employment data fuels Fed rate hold speculation

The strong US employment data reduces the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, impacting market dynamics and creating contrarian trading opportunities.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 rise to 86% amid escalating tensions

Rising odds of U.S. forces entering Iran signal potential geopolitical instability, impacting global markets and strategic military dynamics.

6 months ago · By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Latest

Market sees rising odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 86% YES

Apr. 3, 2026

Market sees rising odds of US forces entering Iran by April 30 at 86% YES

Rising market odds of US intervention in Iran suggest heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting global stability and economic forecasts.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran raises odds of US ground troops entering

Apr. 3, 2026

F-15E Strike Eagle shot down over Iran raises odds of US ground troops entering

The incident escalates tensions, potentially leading to increased U.S. military involvement and impacting geopolitical stability and markets.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran rejects US ceasefire demands, odds for April 7 drop to 1.1%

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran rejects US ceasefire demands, odds for April 7 drop to 1.1%

Iran's rejection of US ceasefire demands underscores the challenges in achieving a swift diplomatic resolution, impacting market confidence.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump signs executive order for 100% tariffs on patented drugs to boost US production

Apr. 3, 2026

Trump signs executive order for 100% tariffs on patented drugs to boost US production

The executive order may strain US-EU trade relations, potentially impacting global markets and economic conditions through retaliatory measures.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees $52B in assets, signals bullish trend for Bitcoin

Apr. 3, 2026

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF sees $52B in assets, signals bullish trend for Bitcoin

Institutional adoption via BlackRock's ETF could drive Bitcoin's mainstream acceptance, influencing future price stability and growth.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Trump: US jet downing won’t affect Iran negotiations, ceasefire odds drop

Apr. 3, 2026

Trump: US jet downing won’t affect Iran negotiations, ceasefire odds drop

Trump's diplomatic focus may stabilize long-term US-Iran ceasefire odds, but immediate progress remains uncertain amid market caution.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Qatar skips Iran-US ceasefire talks, lowering April 7 odds to 1% YES

Apr. 3, 2026

Qatar skips Iran-US ceasefire talks, lowering April 7 odds to 1% YES

Qatar's absence from talks undermines diplomatic efforts, reducing ceasefire prospects and highlighting the fragility of regional peace.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in H1 2026, boosting bullish sentiment

Apr. 3, 2026

Schwab to launch spot Bitcoin and Ether trading in H1 2026, boosting bullish sentiment

Schwab's crypto trading launch may legitimize digital assets, spurring institutional adoption and potentially driving Bitcoin prices higher.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran rejects US proposal for 48-hour ceasefire, odds of resolution plummet

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran rejects US proposal for 48-hour ceasefire, odds of resolution plummet

Iran's rejection of the ceasefire proposal exacerbates geopolitical tensions, diminishing hopes for swift diplomatic resolutions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ

Iran’s former foreign minister proposes nuclear deal amid low ceasefire odds

Apr. 3, 2026

Iran’s former foreign minister proposes nuclear deal amid low ceasefire odds

The proposal's lack of official backing highlights the challenges in achieving diplomatic progress amid market skepticism and geopolitical tensions.

By ESTEFANO GOMEZ