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Iran’s former foreign minister proposed limiting the nuclear program in exchange for lifting sanctions and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Odds of a ceasefire by April 7 have dropped to 1% from 2% yesterday.
The market reflects skepticism. April 7 sits at 1% YES, April 15 at 6%, and April 30 at 18%. Odds for a ceasefire by May 31 rise to 36% YES, indicating traders expect a potential catalyst by then.
Trading volume is significant, with $431,402 in USDC daily. The order book for April 7 is thin, needing just $12,352 to shift the price by 5 points. A single large order could sway the market.
The proposal lacks official support, making it unlikely to influence traders. A YES share at 1¢ offers a 100x return if a ceasefire occurs by April 7, but without signs of imminent talks, it’s a gamble.
Watch for changes in rhetoric from Trump, Rubio, or intermediaries like Oman. Statements from CENTCOM or Iranian leaders could also impact market sentiment.
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